© 2009 Schattauer GmbH, Stuttgart
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The influence of meteorological variables on the development
of deep venous thrombosis
Helen K. Brown
1
; A. John Simpson
2
; John T. Murchison
3
1
Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK;
2
Department of Respiratory Medicine,
University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK;
3
Department of Radiology, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
Summary
The influence of weather on deep venous thrombosis (DVT)
incidence remains controversial. We aimed to characterize the
temporal association between DVT and meteorological vari-
ables including atmospheric pressure. Data relating to hospital
admissions with DVT in Scotland were collected retrospectively
for a 20 year period for which corresponding meteorological re-
cordings were available. Weather variables were calculated as
weighted daily averages to adjust for variations in population
density. Seasonal variation in DVT and short-term effects of
weather variables on the relative risk of developing DVT were
assess using Poisson regression modelling. The models allowed
for the identification of lag periods between variation in the
weather and DVT presentation. A total of 37,336 cases of DVT
were recorded. There was significant seasonal variation in DVT
with a winter peak. Seasonal variation in wind speed and tem-
Keywords
Deep venous thrombosis, venous thromboembolism, weather,
atmospheric pressure, epidemiology
perature were significantly associated with seasonal variation in
DVT. When studying more immediate meteorological influences,
low atmospheric pressure, high wind speed and high rainfall
were significantly associated with an increased risk of DVT ap-
proximately 9–10 days later.The effect was most strikingly dem-
onstrated for atmospheric pressure, every 10 millibar decrease
in pressure being associated with a 2.1% increase in relative risk
of DVT.Alterations in weather have a small but significant impact
upon the incidence of DVT. DVT is particularly associated with
reduction in atmospheric pressure giving weight to the hypoth-
esis that reduced cabin pressure in long haul flights contributes
to DVT. These findings have implications for our understanding
of the pathogenesis of DVT.
Thromb Haemost 2009; 102: 676–682
Blood Coagulation, Fibrinolysis and Cellular Haemostasis
Correspondence to:
Dr JT Murchison
Dept of Radiology
Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh
Little France Crescent
Edinburgh EH16 4SU
Scotland, UK
Tel.: +44 131 242 3775
E-mail: john.murchison@luht.scot.nhs.uk
Financial support:
The University of Edinburgh paid £2,000 towards the cost of statistical analysis
for this study.
Received: April 3, 2009
Acepted after minor revision: June 16, 2009
Prepublished online: August 27, 2009
doi:10.1160/TH09-04-0214
Introduction
In the US venous thromboembolism (VTE) has an estimated
incidence exceeding 1 per 1000 of the population, contributing
to over 50,000 deaths per annum (1).While a number of well de-
fined risk factors for the development of VTE are recognised
(such as immobility, recent surgery, recent fracture, pregnancy,
malignancy and oestrogen therapy) the influence of meteoro-
logical variables remains controversial.
Pulmonary embolism (PE) has been associated with low at-
mospheric pressure, low temperature, high rainfall, high relative
humidity and high vapour pressure (2–6). The effects of me-
teorological variables on deep venous thrombosis (DVT) are less
well characterised. Overall, the emergence of a consistent effect
of weather on VTE has been hampered by the requirement for
large datasets to detect relatively small influences on the risk of
VTE, and a tendency for previous, smaller studies to yield con-
flicting conclusions.
Scotland is a comparatively small country both geographi-
cally and demographically (population approximately 5.1 mil-
lion), with a relatively stable population, well-established me-
teorological records and a centralised diagnostic coding system
for hospital admissions. This combination presented us with the
opportunity to make a detailed assessment of the associations be-
tween DVT and variations in weather. The aim of this study was
therefore to investigate the temporal association between DVT
and meteorological variables, with particular emphasis on at-
mospheric pressure.