Volume 6 • Issue 1 • 1000250
J Earth Sci Clim Change
ISSN:2157-7617 JESCC, an open access journal
Research Article Open Access
Petraki et al., J Earth Sci Clim Change 2015, 6:1
http://dx.doi.org/10.4172/2157-7617.1000250
Review Article Open Access
Earth Science & Climatic Change
*Corresponding author: Nikolopoulos D, TEI of Piraeus, Department of
Electronic Computer Systems Engineering, Petrou Ralli and Thivon 250, GR-
12244 Aigaleo, Athens, Greece, Tel: +0030-210-5381560; Fax: +0030-210-
5381436; E-mail: dniko@teipir.gr
Received November 16, 2014; Accepted January 03, 2015; Published January
12, 2015
Citation: Petraki E, Nikolopoulos D, Nomicos C, Stonham J, Cantzos D, et al. (2015)
Electromagnetic Pre-earthquake Precursors: Mechanisms, Data and Models-A
Review. J Earth Sci Clim Change 6: 250. doi:10.4172/2157-7617.1000250
Copyright: © 2015 Petraki E, et al. This is an open-access article distributed under
the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted
use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and
source are credited.
Electromagnetic Pre-earthquake Precursors: Mechanisms, Data and
Models-A Review
Petraki E
1
, Nikolopoulos D
2
*, Nomicos C
3
, Stonham J
1
, Cantzos D
4
, Yannakopoulos P
2
and Kottou S
5
1
Brunel University, Department of Engineering and Design, Kingston Lane, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH, London, UK
2
TEI of Piraeus, Department of Electronic Computer Systems Engineering, Petrou Ralli and Thivon 250, GR-12244 Aigaleo, Athens, Greece
3
TEI of Athens, Department of Electronic Engineering, Agiou Spyridonos, GR-12243, Aigaleo, Athens, Greece
4
TEI of Piraeus, Department of Automation Engineering, Petrou Ralli and Thivon 250, GR-12244 Aigaleo, Greece
5
University of Athens, Medical School, Department of Medical Physics, Mikras Asias 75, GR-11527 Goudi, Athens, Greece
Keywords: Electromagnetic emissions; Earthquake precursors; Ultra
low frequency
Introduction
Natural events like earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions
are inevitable. What makes these events more dangerous and
disastrous is not that they are inevitable but that they are still extremely
hard to predict. herefore, it is one of the major challenges for the
world scientiic community to ind a reliable seismic precursor. he
researchers have started eforts in this direction a lot of decades ago.
However, the problem of earthquake prediction remains unsolved.
Precursors recorded for certain earthquakes indicate there is evidence
that they can be used for forecasting. In case of an earthquake rupture,
certain precursory activity can be expected, if the observation is made
in the near vicinity of causative fracture. he problem of earthquake
prediction consists of consecutive, step-by-step, narrowing of the time
interval, space and magnitude ranges, where a strong earthquake should
be expected [1]. Five stages of prediction are usually distinguished. he
background stage provides maps with the territorial distribution of
the maximum possible magnitude and recurrence time of destructive
earthquake of diferent magnitudes. Four subsequent stages, fuzzily
divided, include the time prediction; they difer in the characteristic
time interval covered by an alarm. hese stages are as follows [2]: long-
term (10
1
years); intermediate-term (1 year); short-term (10
-1
to 10
-2
years), and immediate-term (10
-3
years or less). Such division into
stages is dictated by the character of the process that leads to a strong
earthquake and by the needs of earthquake preparedness; the latter
comprises an arsenal of safety measures for each stage of prediction [1].
According to Hayakawa and Hobara [3] the prediction of earthquakes is
classiied into three categories: long-term (timescale of 10 to 100 years);
intermediate-term (time-scale of 1 to 10 years); short-term. Note, that
even in short-term prediction there is no one-to-one correspondence
between anomalies in the observations and the earthquake events [4,5].
Although much more diicult than the long-term and intermediate-
term predictions, short-term prediction of earthquakes on a time-scale
of hours, days or weeks, is believed to be of the highest priority for
social demands in seismo-active countries.
he short-term earthquake precursors related with electromagnetic
efects are promising tools for earthquake prediction. he subjective
study of seismo-electromagnetism refers to electric and magnetic
ield anomalies [6] observed during seismicity. Various studies have
shown that these pre-seismic electromagnetic emissions occur in wide
frequency band ranging from few Hz to MHz. Global eforts to predict
earthquakes were started about a century ago and peaked during 1970s.
he irst scientiically well documented earthquake prediction was
made on the basis of temporal and spatial variation of ts/tp relation in
Blue mountain Lake, New York on 3rd August, 1973 [7]. Seismologists
then successfully predicted the M7.4 Heicheng China earthquake
of February 4, 1975 (Cha Chi Yuan), which raised the hopes that it
could be possible to make reliable earthquake forecasts. Because of this
prediction, an alert was issued within the 24-hour period prior to the
main shock, probably preventing a larger number of casualties than the
1328 deaths that actually occurred from this event. However, the failure
to predict another devastating earthquake 18 months later, the 1976
M7.8 Tangshan earthquake, was a major setback to the earthquake
prediction efort. Casualties from this earthquake numbered in the
hundreds of thousands [8]. he seismologists have now narrowed
down their studies from long term prediction to short term prediction
[9]. he studies carried out in past three decades have given birth to
the new ield of seismo-electromagnetism. Several research groups all
over the world have shown evidences of electromagnetic emissions and
anomalies before earthquakes.
Despite the scientiic eforts, the preparation and evolution of
earthquakes is not delineated yet. A signiicant reason is that there is
restricted knowledge of the fracture mechanisms of the crust [4,10-26].
his is reinforced by the fact that each earthquake is particular and
Abstract
This paper is a survey of pre-earthquake short-term electromagnetic precursors. Extensive studies were carried
out the last decades in analysis of electromagnetic emissions from 10-3 Hz up to MHz. These signals were analyzed
through visual, statistical and chaotic techniques. The paper presents cumulative elements from scientiic investigations
performed during the last 40 years in this area. Physical models have also been developed for the interpretation of
production and propagation of electromagnetic radiation during the fracture process. The Ultra Low Frequency (ULF)
fracture-re-lated emissions attempted to be explained via magneto-hydrodynamic, piezomagnetic and electroki-netic
effects whereas for the kHz-MHz observations the model of asperities was proposed.