1 The Current Legislation” and the “ Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction” cases for the CAFE baseline emission projections Background paper for the meeting of the CAFE Working Group on Target Setting and Policy Advice, November 10, 2004 Markus Amann, Rafal Cabala, Janusz Cofala, Chris Heyes, Zbigniew Klimont, Wolfgang Schöpp International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Leonor Tarrason, David Simpson, Peter Wind, Jan-Eiof Jonson Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET.NO), Oslo, Norway Version 2 (including tables of impact estimates) November 2004 Table of contents 1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... 2 2 EMISSION SCENARIOS ............................................................................................................. 3 3 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ............................................................................................... 15 3.1 ANTHROPOGENIC CONTRIBUTIONS TO AMBIENT PM2.5 CONCENTRATIONS ........................... 16 3.2 LOSS IN LIFE EXPECTANCY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE EXPOSURE TO FINE PARTICULATE MATTER 18 3.3 PREMATURE DEATHS ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE EXPOSURE TO GROUND-LEVEL OZONE ............. 22 3.4 VEGETATION DAMAGE FROM GROUND-LEVEL OZONE ........................................................... 26 3.5 ACID DEPOSITION TO FOREST ECOSYSTEMS ........................................................................... 28 3.6 ACID DEPOSITION TO SEMI-NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS ............................................................... 32 3.7 ACID DEPOSITION TO FRESHWATER BODIES ........................................................................... 34 3.8 EXCESS NITROGEN DEPOSITION ............................................................................................. 36 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Schlossplatz 1 • A-2361 Laxenburg • Austria Telephone: (+43 2236) 807 • Fax: (+43 2236) 71313 E-mail: publications@iiasa.ac.at • Internet: www.iiasa.ac.at