52 Population and Water Exploring the Population / Water Resources Nexus in the Developing World Anthony R. Turton and Jeroen F. Warner Anthony R. Turon is head of the African Water Issues Research Unit at Pretoria University. Jeroen F. Warner is a researcher at the Flood Hazards Research Centre of Middlesex University. Introduction Any discussion on the population/water resources nexus in the developing world tends to be clouded by preconceived notions. The very concept of “population growth” is invariably constructed so as to be linked with value-laden notions like the “population time-bomb” and “population explosion,” which are, in turn, closely associated with Malthu- sian catastrophe and social decay. This article explores the population/water resources nexus by using empirical examples from Africa in order to isolate some of the strategi- cally important issues that policymakers should recognize. Two distinct areas of Africa have been selected: first, “Southern Africa,” which for purposes of this article will mean countries belonging to the Southern African Development Community (SADC); and sec- ond, “East Africa,” which for purposes of this article will mean countries geographically located within the Nile River Basin. 1 The article begins by listing some fundamental points of departure, laying out our approach to the concepts of scarcity, resources, and legitimacy. These concepts provide a logical conceptual foundation for the article’s subsequent analysis. This foundation is followed by an analytical separation between what will be identified as “first-order” and “second-order” levels of analysis. It is in this separation that the article offers an alterna- tive perspective on the issues at hand. Special attention will be paid to the use and usefulness of technologies like Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in the context of this first-order/second-order framework. The article concludes by answering four key questions, which are deemed to be important to an understanding of the strategic signifi- cance of water resource management in Africa. Points of Departure: Some Key Concepts What immediately follows are fundamental ideas that form the article’s logical foun- dation. Three concepts of this foundation are of paramount importance: scarcity, re- sources, and legitimacy. 1. “Water scarcity” seems at first so tantalizingly straightforward as to seduce the non-specialist reader into a rather superficial understanding of its definition and implica- tions. Isn’t water scarcity simply a shortage of water in time and space? While this defi- nition adequately defines the concept in many cases, the spatial/temporal dimension of water scarcity involves subtle but important nuances. Rather, water scarcity should be defined as a condition in which demographically-induced demand for water exceeds the prevailing level of local supply (Turton & Ohlsson, 1999). Pressures resulting from abso- lute population growth and increasing density from urbanization of course raise the num- ber of people per unit area. But a focus on “demand” forces us to take into account how the notion of scarcity is also economically and culturally constituted. Beyond the three liters per person per day required for basic human survival, “demand” and even “need” are not absolute values; they depend on social and consumptive habits that are culture-