Forest Energy Observer Contact: Prof., Dr. Lauri Sikanen Mekrijärven tutkimusasema, Yliopistontie 4, 82900 Ilomantsi, Finland +358(0)2944 53683 e‐mail: lauri.sikanen@uef.fi 27 Forecasting Algorithm for Natural Drying of Energy Wood in Forest Storages Lauri Sikanen, Dominik Röser, Perttu Anttila, & Robert Prinz Increasing procurement volumes of forest biomass for energy require improved information systems to control and manage transportation. Moisture content of the biomass is the most important quality parameter to follow. Transportation of water in solid biofuels increases both costs and CO 2 emissions. Procurement operations need to be directed to storages which have low enough moisture content. Storing the fuel too long time increases capital costs of procurement as well as heating value losses. This complex decision making situation requires for possibility to forecast moisture content changes of storages as a part of the procurement control of energy wood. This study introduces one approach to create forecasting algorithm based on daily moisture change and drying periods. The algorithm is simple and easy to program and can be a part of enterprise resource planning (ERP) applications. Keywords: Fuel chips, biofuels, forest fuels, bioenergy, moisture, forecast