Sustainability of electricity supply technology portfolio Stefan Roth a , Stefan Hirschberg b, * , Christian Bauer b , Peter Burgherr b , Roberto Dones b,1 , Thomas Heck b , Warren Schenler b a Axpo Holding AG, Baden, Switzerland b Paul Scherrer Institut, Villigen, Switzerland article info Article history: Received 9 October 2008 Received in revised form 13 November 2008 Accepted 13 November 2008 Available online 30 January 2009 abstract This paper outlines the approach to the evaluation of sustainability of current and future electricity sup- ply options of interest for a major Swiss utility Axpo Holding AG. The motivation behind this effort has been to provide a solid basis for a state-of-the-art interdisciplinary assessment and use this framework within a dialog with a wide spectrum of stakeholders. The development and implementation of the meth- odology was coordinated by Axpo in co-operation with the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI) and other scientific institutions. The evaluation covers environmental, social and economic dimensions of sustainability. Methods used include among others life cycle assessment (LCA), impact pathway approach (IPA) and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). The associated databases developed by PSI have been extensively used, subject to major extensions necessary for analyzing the future technologies. Learning curves were employed for future cost estimates. Furthermore, particularly in the social area expert surveys were used. The results were aggregated using total (internal plus external) costs approach and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). For MCDA a set of criteria and the associated indicators was established. In total 75 indicators were quantified, including 11 environmental, 33 social and 31 economic. Eighteen current and 18 future technologies have been analysed including nuclear as well as fossil and renewable technologies. Total costs were estimated for these technologies providing a clear ranking with nuclear having the lowest costs and some of the renewables showing remarkable cost reductions until 2030. This ranking is partially controversial mainly due to the limited representation of social aspects in the total costs. The results of MCDA-applications involving elicitation of preferences from a relatively homogeneous stakeholder group, i.e. 85 employees of the Axpo Group (including also NOK, EGL, CKW and Axpo IT), are summarized. In addition, sensitivity of technology ranking to preference profiles is demon- strated. Broader consideration of social factors favours renewables and depending on the specifics of pref- erence profiles may lower the ranking of nuclear. Further applications of the MCDA-approach with various stakeholder groups are planned. Ó 2008 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 1. Background One of the key issues of current and future energy policy in Switzerland is the ensuring of a sufficient electricity supply. Given the steadily growing electricity consumption (BFE, 2007), the forthcoming expiration of electricity import contracts with France and the need of replacement of some of the older Swiss nuclear plants, options for a sustainable electricity supply have to be con- sidered and evaluated. Such an assessment should include all pil- lars of sustainability, i.e. it must cover environmental, economic and social aspects. In order to allow a transparent decision process, which could be accepted by all stakeholders, an interdisciplinary, comprehensive approach based on a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) tool has been implemented. Based on this MCDA tool the sustainability of current and future power supply technologies relevant for Swit- zerland has been evaluated. This was accompanied by the assess- ment of total costs, covering the environmental, health and economic dimensions. 2. Objective and scope The goal of the study was to allow a complete and transparent comparison of all realistically available options for the Swiss elec- tricity supply in the forthcoming years up to 2030 regarding their sustainability. For this purpose a tool has been developed, which builds on quantified indicators measuring the environmental, 0306-4549/$ - see front matter Ó 2008 Published by Elsevier Ltd. doi:10.1016/j.anucene.2008.11.029 * Corresponding author. Tel.: +41 (0)56 310 2956; fax: +41 (0)56 310 4411. E-mail address: stefan.hirschberg@psi.ch (S. Hirschberg). 1 Present address: BKW FMB Energy Ltd., Berne, Switzerland. Annals of Nuclear Energy 36 (2009) 409–416 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Annals of Nuclear Energy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/anucene