Global Business and Economics Review, Vol. 11, No. 1, 2009 1
Copyright © 2009 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
An evaluation of UK risky money: an artificial
intelligence approach
Jane M. Binner*
Economics and Strategy Group
Aston Business School
Birmingham, B4 7ET, UK
E-mail: j.m.binner@aston.ac.uk
*Corresponding author
Alicia M. Gazely
Department of Information Management & Systems
The Nottingham Trent University
Nottingham, NG1 4BU, UK
E-mail: alicia.gazely@ntu.ac.uk
Graham Kendall
School of Computer Science
Jubilee Campus
The University of Nottingham
Nottingham, NG8 1BB, UK
E-mail: gxk@cs.nott.ac.uk
Abstract: In this paper we compare the performance of three indices in an
inflation forecasting experiment. The evidence not only suggests that an
evolved neural network is superior to traditionally trained networks in the
majority of cases, but also that a risky money index performs at least as well as
the Bank of England Divisia index when combined with interest rate
information. Notably, the provision of long-term interest rates improves the
out-of-sample forecasting performance of the Bank of England Divisia index in
all cases examined.
Keywords: risky money; artificial intelligence: forecasting; neural networks:
evolution strategies.
Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Binner, J.M., Gazely, A.M.
and Kendall, G. (2009) ‘An evaluation of UK risky money: an artificial
intelligence approach’, Global Business and Economics Review, Vol. 11,
No. 1, pp.1–18.
Biographical notes: Jane M. Binner applies traditional methods such as
investment appraisal analysis and also state-of-the-art modelling methods such
as dynamic game theory modelling. Her work centres on the application of
advanced multivariate techniques to a range of data types, particularly the
econometric and time series analysis of financial data. The work, which is