1 MODELING IMPACTS OF MOBILITY ON URBAN AIR QUALITY: Scenario Analysis for the Brussels-Capital Region *) Paul Safonov +) , Vincent Favrel, and Walter Hecq Centre for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Free University of Brussels (ULB) 44 Avenue Jeanne, CP 124, Brussels, B-1050, Belgium Tel: +32 2 650-3588, Fax: +32 2 650-4691 E-mail: PSafonov@ulb.ac.be Aggravation of transportation intensity and air pollution in urban areas in the last decades is urging the studies on strategic environmental assessment (SEA) of transportation networks and the integration of transport-environment concerns with land-use planning. This paper tackles the environmental aspects of mobility, induced by major policy options in the Brussels-Capital region. The assessment is based on the Regional Plan of Land Use ("P.R.A.S") and the Regional Plan of Mobility (Plan "IRIS"), and focused on residential areas and office relocation and expansion, development of transportation networks, modal shift, parking, and other urban policies. Substantial presence of European and international organisations and businesses in the city and its heterogeneous population structure are also taken into account. For the purposes of such analysis a system of models is being developed, including: 1) Forecasts of population and employment dynamics, in accordance to different economic and urban development scenarios. Such forecasts are based on: - indicators of economic development by main sectors of activities and respective demand for labor resources; - general birth rate and population dynamics; - trends and shifts in population and labor resources structure (e.g. from workers to executives, from permanent residents to foreigners and migrants, from town to periphery; growth of the share of middle-aged population, etc.); - spatial distribution of the population in the region. 2) Mobility model, providing scenarios of public and private traffic in the region, according to different origin-destination matrices, generated on the basis of the stage 1 calculations and office stock modeling. For transportation network analysis the TRIPS software package is used, which provides powerful tools for assignment and graphical presentation. 3) A model linking mobility and air pollution. The focus is on emission of CO 2 , CO, NO x , SO 2 , VOC, particulate matter, and on consumption of non-renewable fuel. COPERT II methodology is used for emissions calculations from traffic, taking into consideration new European/Belgian regulations on vehicles. Possible scenarios for improvement of the policy making in regional and urban planning in order to reduce the ecological pressure are discussed. *) This research project is financed by the Administration of the Brussels-Capital Region and the Federal Office for Scientific, Technical and Cultural Affairs (OSTC) of the Belgian Prime Minister Services. +) The corresponding author, permanently at the Institute of Control Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences, 65 Profsoyuznaya, Moscow, 117806, Russia. E-mail: Paul.Safonov@ipu.rssi.ru