Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2589–2603, 2014
www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/14/2589/2014/
doi:10.5194/nhess-14-2589-2014
© Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.
Perception of flood and landslide risk in Italy: a preliminary analysis
P. Salvati, C. Bianchi, F. Fiorucci, P. Giostrella, I. Marchesini, and F. Guzzetti
CNR IRPI, via Madonna Alta 126, 06128 Perugia, Italy
Correspondence to: P. Salvati (p.salvati@irpi.cnr.it)
Received: 21 March 2014 – Published in Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.: 15 May 2014
Revised: – – Accepted: 7 August 2014 – Published: 29 September 2014
Abstract. Inundations and landslides are widespread phe-
nomena in Italy, where they cause severe damage and pose
a threat to the population. Little is known about the pub-
lic perception of landslide and flood risk. This is surpris-
ing, as an accurate perception is important for the successful
implementation of many risk reduction or adaptation strate-
gies. In an attempt to address this gap, we have conducted
two national surveys to measure the perception of landslide
and flood risk amongst the population of Italy. The surveys
were conducted in 2012 and 2013, and consisted of approxi-
mately 3100 computer-assisted telephone interviews for each
survey. The samples of the interviewees were statistically
representative for a national-scale quantitative assessment.
The interviewees were asked questions designed to obtain
information on (i) their perception of natural, environmen-
tal, and technological risks, (ii) direct experience or general
knowledge of the occurrence of landslides and floods in their
municipality, (iii) perception of the possible threat posed by
landslides and floods to their safety, (iv) general knowledge
on the number of victims affected by landslides or floods, and
on (v) the factors that the interviewees considered important
for controlling landslide and flood risks in Italy. The surveys
revealed that the population of Italy fears technological risks
more than natural risks. Of the natural risks, earthquakes
were considered more dangerous than floods, landslides, and
volcanic eruptions. Examination of the temporal and geo-
graphical distributions of the responses revealed that the oc-
currence of recent damaging events influenced risk percep-
tion locally, and that the perception persisted longer for earth-
quakes and decreased more rapidly for landslides and floods.
We explain the difference by the diverse consequences of the
risks. The interviewees considered inappropriate land man-
agement the main cause of landslide and food risk, followed
by illegal construction, abandonment of the territory, and cli-
mate change. Comparison of the risk perception with actual
measures of landslide and flood risk, including the number of
fatal events, the number of fatalities, and the mortality rates,
revealed that in most of the Italian regions, the perception
of the threat did not match the long-term risk posed to the
population by landslides and floods. This outcome points to
a need to foster an understanding of the public towards land-
slide and flood hazards and risks in Italy.
1 Introduction
Landslides and floods are recurrent and abundant phenom-
ena in Italy, where they cause damage and pose a threat to
the population (Guzzetti et al., 1994; Guzzetti and Tonelli,
2004). Landslide and flood hazards, and the associated risk,
have been determined on various geographical scales in Italy,
from the site-specific (local) to the synoptic (national) scale.
On the local scale, detailed investigations have produced
zonations of landslide and flood hazards and risks (“Piani
di Assetto Idrogeologico”), which are used to design defen-
sive structures and to implement mitigation strategies. On
the synoptic scale, investigators have estimated the individ-
ual and collective risk posed by landslides and floods to the
population (Guzzetti et al., 2005a; Salvati et al., 2010, 2012).
Despite these efforts, little is known regarding the public per-
ception of the risk posed by landslides and floods in Italy.
This is surprising, because an appropriate perception of the
risk is important for the successful implementation of risk
reduction or adaptation strategies.
In an attempt to address this gap, in 2012 and 2013, we
executed two national surveys to probe the perception of
the population of Italy of landslide and flood risk. The two
surveys were executed by conducting more than 3000 tele-
phone interviews, and they provided sufficient information
to perform a preliminary evaluation of the perception that
Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.