International Scholarly Research Network ISRN Public Health Volume 2012, Article ID 329721, 8 pages doi:10.5402/2012/329721 Research Article The Czech Republic SimSmoke : The Effect of Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking Prevalence and Smoking Attributable Deaths in the Czech Republic David T. Levy, 1, 2 Hana Ross, 3 Alexandra Kmetova, 4 Eva Kralikova, 4 Michal Stoklosa, 3 and Kenneth Blackman 2 1 Department of Oncology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC 20007, USA 2 Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Calverton, MD 20705, USA 3 International Tobacco Control Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA 30303, USA 4 Tobacco Dependence Treatment Centre, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic Correspondence should be addressed to David T. Levy, dl777@georgetown.edu Received 4 January 2012; Accepted 24 January 2012 Academic Editors: W. Aekplakorn, J. U. B´ eria, and S. Siziya Copyright © 2012 David T. Levy et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Background. The Czech Republic has a weak tobacco control record. This paper describes a simulation model examining the effect of future tobacco control policies in the Czech Republic on smoking prevalence and associated future premature mortality. Methods. The model is developed using the SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy. The model uses population, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for the Czech Republic. It assesses, individually and in combination, the effect of taxes, smoke-free air laws, mass media campaigns, advertising bans, warning labels, cessation treatment, and youth access policies. Results. With a comprehensive set of policies, smoking prevalence can be reduced by as much as 22% in the first year, by 35% in 20 years, and up to 40% in 30 years. By 2040, 5,873 deaths can be averted in that year alone. Without these policies, 113,004 people in the Czech Republic will die prematurely in the next 30 years. Conclusions. The model shows that significant inroads to reducing smoking prevalence and premature mortality can be achieved through tax increases, a high intensity media campaign, a comprehensive cessation treatment program, strong health warnings, stronger smoke-free air laws and marketing bans, and well-enforced youth access laws. 1. Introduction Globally, 5 million premature deaths each year are attributa- ble to smoking [1]. Approximately, 18,000 of these deaths are in the Czech Republic (CR), a country in the heart of Europe with a population of 10 million [1]. To reduce this toll, the World Health Organization has set out the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC). Substantial evi- dence indicates that higher cigarette taxes, clean air laws, advertising bans, and media campaigns can appreciably re- duce adult smoking rates, especially when combined as a comprehensive strategy [2, 3]. MPOWER [4] suggests specif- ic policies consistent with the FCTC. The CR has signed, but not yet ratified the FCTC, thus being the only country in the European Union not a party to the FCTC. The CR has a notably high rate of smoking (35% of men and 27% of women smoke) [5], with policy makers openly supporting the tobacco industry [6]. Since 1995, the CR has increased cigarette taxes and strengthened health warnings in order to comply with EU regulations, but has done little else, and cigarette prices are still low relative to other EU nations and the local standard of living [7]. Since the ability of purely statistical studies to distinguish the effects of different policies on smoking rates is limited, simulation models combine information from different sources to provide a useful tool for examining how the effects of public policies unfold over time [8, 9]. SimSmoke simul- taneously considers a broader array of public policies than other models [10] and has been validated in several countries [11, 12] and US states [13–15].