Integrating sea level rise into development suitability analysis Marisa Berry a , Todd K. BenDor b,⇑ a Curriculum for the Environment and Ecology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27510, United States b Department of City and Regional Planning, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, CB #3140, New East Building, Chapel Hill, NC 27510, United States article info Article history: Received 13 May 2014 Received in revised form 4 December 2014 Accepted 30 December 2014 Keywords: Suitability analysis Ian McHarg Hurricanes Natural hazards Climate change Sea level rise Environmental planning Ecological planning Overlay analysis Landscape suitability analysis abstract Global climate change and rising sea levels are impacting the sustainability and vitality of coastal com- munities, making identifying vulnerable areas particularly important to minimize the population and infrastructure at risk. In this paper, we expand the classic overlay method developed by Ian McHarg by incorporating sea level rise projections for the 2020s and 2050s into a GIS-based land use suitability analysis of New York City. This analysis considers elevation, slope, distance to coast, rock type, land cover, and sea level rise, which was modeled using a bathtub model. We use the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to produce weights for the criteria considered. Our results suggest that Eastern Staten Island and the southern shore of Brooklyn and Queens are especially unsuitable for future development without major adaptation measures. We also offer recommendations for improving this analysis through improved hydrological connectivity measures in modeling sea level rise, as well as better methods of accounting for policies influencing the manner of development in flood zones. Ó 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Sea level rise places a significant population at risk and the New York City metropolitan region is particularly vulnerable (Bloomfield, Smith, & Thompson, 1999; Colle et al., 2008; Hanson et al., 2011; NPCC, 2013). Researchers and local and federal decision makers are interested in how a changing climate will affect the area (NYC Department of City Planning, 2013a, 2013b; City Of New York, 2011). As the global climate changes, it is necessary to identify vul- nerable areas in order to improve long-term land use planning and disaster relief measures. In this paper, we address these issues through a suitability analysis case study applied to New York City. We will apply the principles of Ian McHarg’s (1969) overlay method, using similar datasets as used in Reshmidevi, Elho, & Jana (2009), Rojas, Pino & Jacque (2013), and Yu, Chen, Wu, and Khan (2011), among many others, to conduct a suitability analysis in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment to produce a cartographic representation of areas suitable for urbanization and development based on a set of environmental criteria. Including sea level rise as a criterion in the suitability analysis introduces a temporal element that considers how suitability will change in response to global change and will make suitability analysis a more informative tool for decision makers. We will first review the overarching issues of climate change, sea level rise, New York City’s particular vulnerability to sea level rise, and the city’s current patterns of development before provid- ing a review of the literature on suitability analysis. We will then detail the data and methods used before discussing the results and implications of this analysis. 2. Background 2.1. Climate change, sea level rise, and coastal vulnerability The IPCC (2007) predicts global sea levels to rise between 0.18 and 0.59 m by 2100, although more recent studies provide evi- dence for a rise of over a meter in the same period of time (Arctic Monitoring, 2011; Rahmstorf et al., 2007; Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research, 2009; U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2011; Vellinga, Katsman, Sterl, & Beersma, 2009). Ris- ing sea levels are associated with more frequent acute weather events, such as typhoons and hurricanes, storm surges, and higher levels of precipitation (Balk et al., 2009; FitzGerald, Fenster, Argow, & Buynevich, 2008). Additionally, there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with these predictions, making planning for sea level rise and more extreme weather events challenging (Meo, 1991; Kostelnick, McDermott, Rowley, & Bunnyfield, 2013). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2014.12.004 0198-9715/Ó 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. ⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 919 962 4760. E-mail address: bendor@unc.edu (T.K. BenDor). Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 51 (2015) 13–24 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Computers, Environment and Urban Systems journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/compenvurbsys