Analysing the greenhouse gas emission reductions of the mitigation action plans by non-Annex I countries by 2020 Michel G.J. den Elzen n , Andries F. Hof, Mark Roelfsema Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Department of Climate, Air and Energy, PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands HIGHLIGHTS c Many countries have pledged to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. c There are upward revisions of greenhouse gas emission projections in many developing countries. c Higher emissions expected from pledged mitigation action plans of developing countries. c Achieving the 2 degree Celsius climate goal becomes more difficult. c The expected emission levels resulting from the pledges are surrounded with large uncertainties. article info Article history: Received 27 April 2012 Accepted 21 January 2013 Available online 20 February 2013 Keywords: Copenhagen Accord Reduction pledges 2 Degree climate goal abstract As part of the Cancu ´ n Agreements, 45 non-Annex I countries have pledged mitigation action plans, of which 16 countries, including the seven major emitting countries, have submitted quantified mitigation actions. Many countries published their business-as-usual (BAU) emissions to which their pledges are connected. This study analyses the expected emission levels from the pledged, quantified actions, and whether these are consistent with achieving the 2 1C target. One of the main findings is that new BAU emission projections have led to about 2.5 GtCO 2 eq higher emission levels expected from pledges by non-Annex I countries. The emissions for non-Annex I countries as a group would be between 9% and 12% below our 2020 BAU emission projections, for, respectively, the unconditional and conditional pledges. This result might be conservative as we assume countries without quantified pledges follow BAU. This implies that for a medium chance of achieving 2 1C, Annex I countries would need to reduce its emissions by about 50% below 1990 levels by 2020. If Annex I countries as a whole would reduce emissions by 13% to 18% below 1990 levels, as expected from the pledges, the reduction of non-Annex I countries should be 22% to 34% below BAU levels for a medium chance of achieving 2 1C. & 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction In the United Nations (UN) climate negotiations in Cancu ´n (2010) and earlier in Copenhagen (2009), urgent action was called for to limit global warming to 2 1C. In order to reach this climate goal, countries were encouraged to submit emission reduction proposals and accompanying mitigation actions for the year 2020. As of to date, 42 Annex I Parties (developed countries) have submitted quantified economy-wide emission reduction propo- sals for 2020, and 45 non-Annex I Parties (developing countries) have submitted nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) as part of the Copenhagen Accord (UNFCCC, 2009). They were later ‘anchored’ in the 2010 Cancu ´ n Agreement (UNFCCC, 2010). While 45 non-Annex I Parties have put forward actions that take a variety of forms, only 16 countries have framed their actions in terms of their expected greenhouse gas impact 1 (Fransen and Hatch, 2011), in total representing about 35% of global emissions as of 2005. This paper focuses on the NAMAs of these 16 countries. Before the UN climate negotiations in Cancu ´ n, several studies determined the effect of the pledges on the global emission level by 2020 (e.g., Rogelj et al., 2010; den Elzen et al., 2011b; Dellink et al., 2011). These studies were assessed in the UNEP Emissions Gap Reports (UNEP, 2011, 2012) and in H¨ ohne et al. (2011). According to their shared main conclusion, pledges for 2020 lead to higher Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol Energy Policy 0301-4215/$ - see front matter & 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.01.035 n Corresponding author. Tel.: þ31 30 274 3584; fax: þ31 30 274 4464. E-mail address: Michel.denElzen@pbl.nl (M.G.J. den Elzen). 1 Of the 16 countries whose actions were examined for this study, only six have specified the sectors to which their action applies, and only two have specified the gases (Fransen and Hatch, 2011). For purposes of this study, the calculations assume that the action applies to all sectors and gases, as also assumed in Fransen and Hatch. Energy Policy 56 (2013) 633–643