Vulnerability of rice production in the Inner Niger Delta to water resources management under climate variability and change S. Liersch a, *, J. Cools b,c , B. Kone d , H. Koch a , M. Diallo d , J. Reinhardt a , S. Fournet a , V. Aich a , F.F. Hattermann a a Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Department Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany b University of Geneva, Climate Change and Climatic Impacts, enviroSPACE Laboratory, Switzerland c Antea Group, Belgium d Wetlands International, Mali Office, Mali e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c i e n c e & p o l i c y x x x ( 2 0 1 2 ) x x x – x x x a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 1 March 2012 Received in revised form 21 September 2012 Accepted 10 October 2012 Keywords: Vulnerability assessment Food security Climate impacts Water management Hydrologic modelling Inner Niger Delta (IND) West Africa a b s t r a c t This manuscript investigates the vulnerability of food security in terms of floating rice production in the Inner Niger Delta to upstream water resources management (reservoir management) and population growth under climate change and variability in the time period 2011–2050. Reservoir management and climate change have large impacts on the inflow patterns into the Inner Niger Delta and thus on the extent and duration of the flooded surface area, which in turn is closely linked to ecological integrity, livelihoods, and food production within the delta region. A vulnerability assessment concept, developed in the framework of the WETwin project, is used to investigate the impacts of existing and planned upstream dams on food demands and supply in the Inner Niger Delta under different climate and population growth scenarios. The impacts on the water balance and inundation patterns were simulated using a process-based eco-hydrological modelling system equipped with an inundation module and a reservoir module. Both projected climate change and upstream reservoir management lead to a significant reduction of peak discharges during the rainy season and hence to serious losses of potential agricultural areas within the Inner Niger Delta. The effectiveness of the planned extension of irrigated rice areas within the Inner Niger Delta, in order to mitigate the losses of areas suitable for floating rice, was investigated as adaptive measure. This land use change fulfils increasing food demands under some scenarios, but at the expense of other ecosystem services and has thus to be critically questioned. # 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. * Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: stefan.liersch@pik-potsdam.de (S. Liersch), jan.cools@gmail.com (J. Cools), bkone@wetlands.sn (B. Kone), hagen.koch@pik-potsdam.de (H. Koch), diallomori2001@yahoo.fr (M. Diallo), juliarei@pik-potsdam.de (J. Reinhardt), samuel.fournet@pik-potsdam.de (S. Fournet), valentin.aich@pik-potsdam.de (V. Aich), fred.hattermann@pik-potsdam.de (F.F. Hattermann). ENVSCI-1126; No. of Pages 16 Please cite this article in press as: Liersch, S., et al., Vulnerability of rice production in the Inner Niger Delta to water resources management under climate variability and change. Environ. Sci. Policy (2012), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2012.10.014 Available online at www.sciencedirect.com journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envsci 1462-9011/$ – see front matter # 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2012.10.014