The effect of perceived risk and victimization on plans to purchase a gun for self-protection Gary Kleck a , Tomislav Kovandzic b, ⁎, Mark Saber b , Will Hauser a a College of Criminology and Criminal Justice, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306–1127, United States b Criminology Program, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX 75080–3021, United States abstract article info Available online 7 April 2011 Purposes: To determine if perceived risk of criminal victimization, and past criminal victimization experiences, increases the likelihood of a person owning a gun for self-protection, and to determine if defects in past research concerning the way gun ownership was measured had obscured such effects. Methods: We analyzed data on over 2,500 U.S. adults, using different ways of measuring gun ownership, and also analyzed future plans (among persons who did not own a gun at the time of the survey) to acquire a gun for self-protection. The latter procedure avoids the causal order problem attributable to the possibility that acquiring a gun might affect victimization risks and perceived risks, as well as the reverse. Results: The estimated effect of perceived risk and prior victimization changed from being nonsignificant when household gun ownership was the dependent variable (as in most prior research) to being increasingly strong, and statistically significant, when gun ownership of the individual respondent for defensive reasons was measured. Further, once the causal order issue was side-stepped, risk and victimization showed even stronger, significant positive effects on planning to get a gun. Conclusions: Crime affects gun ownership, in addition to any effects that gun ownership may have on crime. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Introduction In both absolute and per capita terms, the United States is by far the most heavily armed country in the world. By the end of 2008, there were probably over 300 million guns in private hands (Kleck, 1997, pp. 96–99; Shooting Industry, 2010 and previous years). Results from a recent national survey indicates that 42 percent (±4 percent) of Americans have a gun in their home, and that 29% of U.S. adults personally own a gun (Gallup, 2009). These facts have led some scholars to assert that America's high level of civilian firepower is an important factor contributing to the nation's high level of violence (Newton & Zimring, 1969; Sloan & Rivara, 1990; Wintemute, 2008). Others have concluded that, although aggressor's possession and use of guns has many effects on the outcome of violent encounters, the net impact of widespread gun possession, among both prospective victims and aggressors, is probably a statistical wash (Kleck, 1997; Wright, Rossi, & Daly, 1983). Why do millions of Americans bring deadly weapons into their homes? While national surveys of Americans have consistently shown that most gun owners and long-gun owners in particular, own them primarily for hunting or target shooting, the surveys also reveal that a large subset of gun owners, and most handgun owners, own them primarily for self-protection (see Kleck, 1997, Ch. 3). In a 1994 national survey, for example, 46 percent of all gun owners reported that the primary reason they owned guns was for self-protection (the National Survey of the Private Ownership of Firearms (NSPOF) - Cook & Ludwig, 1996, p. 38). Further, among persons who owned only handguns, 74 percent reported that protection was their primary reason for owning the gun, with target/sport shooting a distant second (10.8 percent). While those who own only long guns own them primarily for target/sport shooting, even among this subset of owners, 15 percent owned them primarily for protection (Cook & Ludwig, 1996, p. 39). The finding in the NSPOF survey that self- protection is the primary motivator of most handgun ownership is largely consistent with results from other national surveys, and is noteworthy because it is primarily this subcategory of guns that have been the target of the strongest control efforts (Kleck, 1997). This is probably because of the greater involvement of such guns in violent crime, and the fact that gun types within this category (e.g., Saturday Night Specials, assault weapons) are more politically susceptible to government regulation as they are owned by smaller numbers of voters (Cook, 1991; Kleck, 1997). Understanding the factors that lead people to obtain guns for self- protection is important for both theoretical and policy reasons. Theoretically, the identification of significant individual and contex- tual determinants will provide for a better understanding of the nature of protective gun ownership. It can also help clarify why high rates of crime and high levels of gun ownership are often found in the Journal of Criminal Justice 39 (2011) 312–319 ⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: + 1 972 883 6847. E-mail address: tkovan@utdallas.edu (T. Kovandzic). 0047-2352/$ – see front matter © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2011.03.002 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Criminal Justice