A MULTILEVEL TEST OF RACIAL THREAT THEORY LISA STOLZENBERG STEWART J. D'ALESSIO DAVID EITLE Florida International University KEYWORDS: racial threat, racial segregation, benign neglect, arrest probability, multilevel We develop a conceptual model articulaiing the mechanisms by which racial threat is theorized to affect social control, focusing specifi- cally on the influence of the relative size of (he black population on the likelihood that the police will arrest a black citizen suspected of a vio- lent criminal offense. A multilevel analysis of 145.255 violent crimes re- ported to police in 182 cities during 2000 shows only qualified support for racial threat theory. Controlling for the amount of race-specific crime reported to police, our findings reveal that black citizens actually have a lower probability of arrest in cities with a relatively large black population. This finding tends to cast doubt on the validity of the racial threat hypothesis. No evidence buttresses the claim that economic com- petition between whites and blacks affects arrest probabilities. However, results show that in cities where racial segregation is more pronounced blacks have a reduced risk of being arrested relative to whites. Crimes involving black offenders and white victims are also more apt to result in an arrest in cities that are racially segregated. These findings support the view that racial segregation is an informal mechanism to circum- scribe the threat of potentially volatile subordinate populations. A fairly large and diverse body of research has accumulated that exam- ines the relationship between racial threat and the amount of soeial eon- trol that police direct at blacks (Eitle, D'Alessio and Stolzenberg. 2002; Greenberg. Kessler and Loftin. 1985; Jacobs, 1979; Jaeobs and Britt. 1979; Jacobs and Helms. 1997; Jacobs and O'Brien, 1998). The main drive be- hind this research is Bialock's (1967) racial threat theory, whieh proffers that as the relative size of the black population grows in a given geo- CRIMINOLOGY VOLUME 42 NUMBER 3 2004 673