Preventive Veterinary Medicine 113 (2014) 469–483 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Preventive Veterinary Medicine j ourna l h om epa ge: www.elsevier.com/locate/prevetmed Risk assessment and cost-effectiveness of animal health certification methods for livestock export in Somalia T.J.D. Knight-Jones a,b,∗ , F. Njeumi c , A. Elsawalhy d,e , J. Wabacha d,f , J. Rushton b a The Pirbright Institute, Pirbright, United Kingdom b The Royal Veterinary College (VEEPH), University of London, United Kingdom c Food & Agriculture Organisation (AGAH), United Nations, Rome, Italy d African Union – InterAfrican Bureau for Animal Resources, Nairobi, Kenya e Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypt f Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Nairobi, Kenya a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 2 February 2013 Received in revised form 2 January 2014 Accepted 3 January 2014 Keywords: Risk assessment Cost-effectiveness Somalia RVF FMD Brucellosis PPR CCPP CBPP a b s t r a c t Livestock export is vital to the Somali economy. To protect Somali livestock exports from costly import bans used to control the international spread of disease, better certification of livestock health status is required. We performed quantitative risk assessment and cost- effectiveness analysis on different health certification protocols for Somali livestock exports for six transboundary diseases. Examining stock at regional markets alone without port inspection and quarantine was inexpensive but was ineffective for all but contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, conta- gious caprine pleuropneumonia and peste des petits ruminants. While extended pre-export quarantine improves detection of infections that cause clinical disease, if biosecurity is sub- optimal quarantine provides an opportunity for transmission and increased risk. Clinical examination, laboratory screening and vaccination of animals for key diseases before entry to the quarantine station reduced the risk of an exported animal being infected. If vacci- nation could be reliably performed weeks before arrival at quarantine its effect would be greatly enhanced. The optimal certification method depends on the disease. Laboratory diagnostic testing was particularly important for detecting infections with limited clinical signs in male ani- mals (only males are exported); for Rift Valley fever (RVF) the probability of detection was 99% or 0% with and without testing. Based on our findings animal inspection and certification at regional markets combined with quarantine inspection and certification would reduce the risk of exporting infected animals and enhance disease control at the regional level. This is especially so for key prior- ity diseases, that is RVF, foot-and-mouth disease and Brucellosis. Increased data collection and testing should be applied at point of production and export. © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. ∗ Corresponding author at: The Pirbright Institute, Pirbright Laboratory, Ash Road, Pirbright, Surrey GU24 0NF, United Kingdom. Tel.: +44 7964499721. E-mail addresses: theodore.knight-jones@pirbright.ac.uk, tknightjones@gmail.com (T.J.D. Knight-Jones). 1. Introduction The Somalia economy is highly dependent on livestock export to the Middle East, with over four million live- stock (mostly sheep and goats) exported in 2010 (FSNAU, 2011). Importing nations have at times blocked this trade to prevent incursion of exotic pathogens (Davies, 2006; FEWS-NET, 2010; Abdo-Salem et al., 2011). Approximately 0167-5877/$ – see front matter © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2014.01.003