484 19 The Future of the Shortgrass Steppe Ingrid C. Burke William K. Lauenroth Michael F. Antolin Justin D. Derner Daniel G. Milchunas Jack A. Morgan Paul Stapp W here lies the future of the shortgrass steppe? In prior chapters we have described the remarkable resilience of the shortgrass steppe ecosystem and its organisms to past drought and grazing, and their sensitivity to other types of change. Emerging from this analysis is the idea of vulnerability to two main forces: future changes in precipitation or water availability, and direct human impacts. What are the likely changes in the shortgrass steppe during the next several decades? Which of the changes are most likely to affect major responses in the plants, animals, and ecosystem services of the shortgrass steppe? In this chapter we evaluate the current status of the shortgrass steppe and its potential responses to three sets of factors that will be driving forces for the future of the steppe: land-use change, atmospheric change, and changes in diseases. Land-Use Change and Conservation Conservation and Management Challenges in the Shortgrass Steppe: Traditional and Emerging Land-Use Practices Paul Stapp, Justin D. Derner, Ingrid C. Burke, William K. Lauenroth, Michael F. Antolin 19-Lauenroth-Chap19.indd 484 19-Lauenroth-Chap19.indd 484 5/4/2008 2:32:31 AM 5/4/2008 2:32:31 AM