Designing a developed model for assessing the disaster induced vulnerability value in educational centers J. Nouri a , N. Mansouri a , M. Abbaspour b , A.R. Karbassi c , M. Omidvari a,⇑ a Department of Environmental Management, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran b Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology and Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran c Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran article info Article history: Received 10 April 2010 Received in revised form 27 November 2010 Accepted 8 January 2011 Available online 12 February 2011 Keywords: Academy community Analytical hierarchy process Disaster Vulnerability abstract To date, the models developed for assessing the vulnerability of societies have only taken account of the economic problems in the societies. Offering a model based on analytical hierarchy process and failure mode and effect analysis logic, the current study aims to determine the factors influencing the vulnera- bility of a higher education center and finally defines a vulnerability index. This model divides the factors influencing vulnerability into three categories: (1) the structure and layout of the buildings, (2) the occu- pants’ characteristics, (3) the controlling and warning systems. The academy community center of Sci- ence and Research Branch was assessed in terms of vulnerability. The findings indicated that the vulnerability value relating to various sections and university buildings was higher than the acceptable level which entailed the due attention of educational managers. The findings showed that if some parts of the educational and administrative buildings were used for laboratory as well as for the storage of haz- ardous and flammable materials, then the vulnerability value will be increased to 200. This highlights the impact that the type of buildings application has on the level of vulnerability. The study has been per- formed in the Science and Research Branch as an educational center in Tehran during 2009–2010. Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Historically, Iran has suffered from many damages emanating from natural disasters. Given the increasing pace of population expansion and the lack of facilities development, the damages due to natural disasters have intensified in consequences. On the other hand, the deterioration of damages due to natural disasters moves abreast with those resulting from economic problems in societies (Wei et al., 2004). The relationship between human activities and the effects of disaster (the socio-economical dimensions of vulner- ability) was extensively discussed and studied in the 70s and the early 80s (Hewitt, 1983). In the context of disaster, the concept of vulnerability was first used by OKeefe et al. (1976). One of the widely-used definitions of vulnerability is as follows: the degree to which different classes of society are differentially at risk. As im- plied by the definition, there is a focus on the theories of economics. In the early 90s, two significant conceptual models of disaster man- agement development were developed for purpose of clarifying ‘‘vulnerability’’: (1) capacities and vulnerabilities analysis (CVA by Anderson (1995)), (2) pressure and release. The concept of vulnera- bility was described as the degree to which one is resistant against disaster in various areas with different economical specifications. The analysis of the vulnerability is aimed at pinpointing the due activities which can decrease the vulnerability of a society before being inflicted by devastating events. This helps the authorities to take effective measures to improve the conditions of society when a disaster occurs. This study maintains that in order to analyze the vulnerability, the traditional models consider these indices to be based on the frequency of crises, the damages inflicted by the crises, the population in different areas and their economic problems. Aug- menting these parameters, one can obtain a combined index on vul- nerability in a specific area. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) can be used in order to measure the weight of index (Wei et al., 2004; Irasema, 2002). Nouri et al. (2010) discussed the application of con- ceptual models and AHP for evaluating risk purpose (Nouri et al., 2010). Markin and Winder (2008) maintained that three parameters namely human, physical work environment and management influ- ence the risk. The failure of these parameters will result in the in- creased level of vulnerability (Markin and Winder, 2008). Sime (1991) touched on the impact activity type, residents’ characteris- tics and environment has on the vulnerability value (Sime, 1991). The same study concludes that the analysis of vulnerability is con- sidered as one of the most important steps in the process of assess- ment and control of the impacts crises have. This was also accessible by a study conducted by (Hellstorm, 2007). The same author dis- cussed the response time and evacuation time in 2001, proposing 0925-7535/$ - see front matter Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2011.01.002 ⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +98 21 44865666; fax: +98 21 44865666. E-mail addresses: nourijafar@srbiau.ac.ir (J. Nouri), omidvari88@yahoo.com (M. Omidvari). Safety Science 49 (2011) 679–685 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Safety Science journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ssci