Climate variability and forecasting surface water recovery from acidification: Modelling drought-induced sulphate release from wetlands J. Aherne a, ⁎ ,1 , T. Larssen b , B.J. Cosby c , P.J. Dillon a a Environmental and Resource Studies, Trent University, Ontario, Canada b Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), Oslo, Norway c Department of Environmental Science, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, USA Available online 17 April 2006 Abstract Climate-induced drought events have been shown to have a significant influence on sulphate (SO 4 2- ) export from forested catchments in central Ontario, subsequently delaying recovery of surface waters from acidification. Field and modelling studies have demonstrated that water table drawdown during drought periods promotes oxidation of previously stored (reduced) sulphur (S) compounds in wetlands, with subsequent efflux of SO 4 2- upon re-wetting. Although climate-induced changes in processes are generally not integrated into soil-acidification models, MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments) includes a wetland compartment that incorporates redox processes driven by drought events. The potential confounding influence of climate- induced drought events on acidification recovery at Plastic Lake, south-central Ontario (under proposed future S emission reductions) was investigated using MAGIC and two climate scenarios: monthly precipitation and runoff based on long-term means (average-climate scenario), and variable precipitation and runoff based on the past 20years of observed monthly data (variable- climate scenario). The variable-climate scenario included several periods of summer drought owing to lower than average rainfall and higher then average temperature. Nonetheless, long-term regional trends in precipitation and temperature suggest that the variable-climate scenario may be a conservative estimate of future climate. The average-climate scenario indicated good recovery potential with acid neutralising capacity (ANC) reaching approximately 40 μmol c L - 1 by 2020 and 50 μmol c L - 1 by 2080. In contrast, the forecasted recovery potential under the variable-climate scenario was very much reduced. By 2080, ANC was forecasted to increase to 2.6 μmol c L - 1 from - 10.0 μmol c L - 1 in 2000. Elevated SO 4 2- efflux following drought events (introduced under the variable-climate scenario) has a dramatic impact on simulated future surface water chemistry. The results clearly demonstrate that prediction of future water quality, using models such as MAGIC, should take into account changes or variability in climate as well as acid deposition. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Wetlands; Climate variability; Drought; MAGIC; Redox–oxidation processes; Sulphate; Plastic Lake; Canada Science of the Total Environment 365 (2006) 186 – 199 www.elsevier.com/locate/scitotenv ⁎ Corresponding author. Department of Environmental and Resource Studies, Trent University, 1600 West Bank Drive, Peterborough, Ontario, Canada K9J 7B8. Tel.: +1 705 748 1011x5351; fax: +1 705 748 1569. E-mail address: julian.aherne@ucd.ie (J. Aherne). 1 Collaborator, via a fellowship under the OECD Co-operative Research Programme: Biological Resource Management for Sustainable Agriculture Systems. 0048-9697/$ - see front matter © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2006.02.041