DOI: 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2008.00523.x © 2008 The Authors
222 Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd www.blackwellpublishing.com/ddi
Diversity and Distributions, (Diversity Distrib.) (2009) 15, 222–231
BIODIVERSITY
RESEARCH
ABSTRACT
Aim To highlight the benefit of using habitat use to improve the accuracy of predictive
road fatality models.
Location The Snowy Mountains Highway in southern New South Wales, Australia.
Methods A binary logistic regression model was constructed using wombat fatality
presences and randomly generated absences. Species-specific habitat variables were
included as predictors in the model selection process as well as two spatially
explicit measures of wombat habitat use. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were
constructed for each possible combination of predictors in R. The final model was
selected by comparing all models subsets for the eight predictors and employing the
one standard error rule to select the best model set.
Results The final predictive model had high discriminatory power and incorporated
both measures of species habitat use, greatly exceeding the variation explained by a
previously published model for the same species and road.
Main Conclusions Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating
variables that describe habitat use by fauna for predictive modelling of animal-
vehicle crashes. Reliance upon models that ignore landscape patterns are limited
in their capacity to identify hotspots and inform managers of locations to engage
in mitigation.
Keywords
Common wombats, Getis–Ord clustering, habitat use, predictive modelling, road-
kill, spatial analysis, Vombatus ursinus.
INTRODUCTION
The adverse impacts of roads on wildlife are well documented
(see reviews by Forman et al., 2003; Seiler, 2003; Coffin, 2007).
Although population effects on fauna extend well beyond the
boundary of the road (Reijnen et al., 1997; Gaines et al., 2005;
Jaarsma et al., 2006; Ramp & Ben-Ami, 2006), fatalities of fauna
killed in collisions with vehicles on the road itself are of major
concern to conservationists and road managers (Forman &
Alexander, 1998; Trombulak & Frissell, 2000). Recently, many
quantitative models of animal–vehicle collisions have been
developed (Malo et al., 2004; Saeki & Macdonald, 2004; Gaines
et al., 2005; Jaeger et al., 2005; Ramp et al., 2005; Orlowski &
Nowak, 2006), with the goal of providing effective mitigation
techniques for management (Jaarsma et al ., 2007). These
probabilistic approaches to predicting locations of animal–
vehicle collisions are conducted for two primary purposes: (1) to
infer those factors contributing to collisions, and (2) to identify
hotspots for targeted mitigation.
Driven by the need to develop feasible models, modelling
approaches for predicting fatality locations have typically relied
on variables that characterize the road environment; such as road
sinuosity, road-verge attributes and spatial and temporal traffic
variation (Finder et al ., 1999; Taylor & Goldingay, 2004;
Clevenger & Waltho, 2005). Often missing, or at best generic in
nature, are species-specific variables that describe how the
animals in question utilize the landscape. When included,
species-specific variables are often restricted to vague character-
izations of landscape utilization (Jaeger et al., 2005), and often
multiple species are modelled simultaneously using the same
suite of generic variables (Clevenger et al., 2003; Taylor &
Goldingay, 2004; Ramp et al., 2005). The biological link
between these habitat variables and the fauna that are involved
in collisions is never explicitly described. This oversight has
significant ramifications, as the importance of understanding
species-specific distributions in ecological studies in road
environments has been shown for a wide range of species
(Forman et al., 2002; Alexander et al., 2005; Lesbarreres et al.,
School of Biological, Earth and Environmental
Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney,
New South Wales 2052, Australia
*Correspondence: Daniel Ramp, School of
Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences,
University of New South Wales, Sydney,
New South Wales 2052, Australia.
E-mail: d.ramp@unsw.edu.au
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Incorporating habitat use in models of
fauna fatalities on roads
Erin Roger and Daniel Ramp*