604
Flexibility in phenology and habitat use act as buffers to long-term
population declines in UK passerines
L. Salido, B. V. Purse, R. Marrs, D. E. Chamberlain and S. Shultz
L. Salido (larlad@ceh.ac.uk) and B. V. Purse, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, EH26 0QB, UK. LS also
at: Univ. of Liverpool, Environmental Science, Liverpool, L69 3 BX, UK. – R. Marrs, Univ. of Liverpool, Environmental Science, Liverpool, L69
3BX, UK. – D. E. Chamberlain and S. Shultz, British Trust for Ornithology, he Nunnery, hetford, Norfolk, IP24 2PU, UK. SS also at: Inst.
of Cognitive and Evolutionary Anthropology, 64 Banbury Road, Oxford, OX2 6PN, UK.
Ecological responses to environmental change are wide-ranging, from alterations in the timing of life-history events to
range and population changes. Explaining the variation across species in these responses is essential for identifying vul-
nerable species and for developing adequate conservation or mitigation strategies. Using population trend data from the
UK Breeding Bird Survey, this study examined the association between long-term population trends (1994–2007) and
phenological, life-history and resource-use traits of UK passerine species. Phenology, as well as productivity and resource
use were signiicantly associated with long-term population trends. Average laying date and irst clutch laying period were
key predictors, with higher population growth rates associated with earlier laying dates and longer laying periods. his
suggests that lexibility in the duration of reproductive periods bufers species against environmental changes. Average
laying period was particularly important for migrant species. Flexibility in laying dates for these species is constrained by
their arrival dates; mean change in arrival date over a twenty-ive year period strongly predicted population trends amongst
migrant species. Besides the key role phenological lexibility plays in bufering population declines, we also showed that
more productive, generalist species were less likely to have declining populations than species with specialized habitat
requirements, particularly those associated with farmland and urban areas and those reliant on highly seasonal food items
(i.e. invertebrate eaters). hese results underscore the need for a multi-faceted approach to understanding the mechanisms
governing population trends. Additionally, species’ sensitivity to environmental change is likely to depend on interactions
between species-speciic phenology, habitat and resource-use traits.
here is compelling evidence that human activities are
leading to climate change, resulting in increasing pressure
on terrestrial biodiversity (Jetz et al. 2007, Rosenzweig
et al. 2007). Ecological responses to recent climate change
are wide-ranging, including alterations in the timing of life-
history events (arrival of migrants, appearance of butterlies
and lowering, Both and Visser 2001, Crick 2004, Parmesan
2006), range changes (Parmesan et al. 1999, homas and
Lennon 1999, Parmesan 2007) biodiversity loss (Lemoine
and Böhning-Gaese 2003) and population dynamics
(Julliard et al. 2004, Both et al. 2006). Climate change,
however, is not the only environmental change afecting bio-
diversity. Habitat loss and modiication are also known to
be key drivers of population change. For example, the wide-
spread population declines and range contractions in farm-
land birds in the UK in the last 50 yr have been linked to
agricultural intensiication (Chamberlain et al. 2000, Vickery
et al. 2001, Benton et al. 2002, Newton 2004, Atkinson et al.
2005). Various other studies in Europe have reported signii-
cant declines in populations of both woodland and farmland
specialist birds which could be partly attributed to increasing
intensive management practices of both forests and farmland
(Julliard et al. 2003, Gregory et al. 2007).
As there is substantial inter-speciic variation observed in
the magnitude and direction of responses to environmen-
tal change, identifying the mechanisms underlying species’
responses is essential for developing adequate conservation
strategies for the most vulnerable species (Jiguet et al. 2009,
Végvári et al. 2009). Across Europe, threats to wild birds
and to other elements of biodiversity are currently moni-
tored using population changes in indicator species from
diferent breeding habitats (Gregory et al. 2005, Newson
et al. 2006). Woodland and farmland breeders are thought to
be at greatest risk from habitat fragmentation (Chamberlain
et al. 2000, Atkinson et al. 2005, Amar et al. 2006, Hewson
and Noble 2009) and the latter are targeted in the UK by
management options such as use of wild bird seed mixture
and skylark plots under environmental stewardship schemes
(Vickery et al. 2004). A greater understanding of the mecha-
nisms underpinning species ’ diferential responses to envi-
ronmental change may be obtained by relating responses to
biological traits. For instance, life-history and resource use
traits have been associated with avian population trends.
Productivity and brood number have been found to have
positive efects on population trends (Végvári et al. 2009)
whereas larger body sizes and longer development periods
Ecography 35: 604–613, 2012
doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.06797.x
© 2011 he Authors. Ecography © 2011 Nordic Society Oikos
Subject Editor: Erik Matthysen. Accepted 19 August 2011