Environmental stratification to model climate change impacts on biodiversity and rubber production in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, China Robert J. Zomer a,b,⇑ , Antonio Trabucco c,g , Mingcheng Wang a,b , Rong Lang a,b , Huafang Chen a,b , Marc J. Metzger d , Alex Smajgl e , Philip Beckschäfer f , Jianchu Xu a,b a Key Laboratory for Plant Biodiversity and Biogeography of East Asia (KLPB), Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Science, Kunming 650201, Yunnan, China b Centre for Mountain Ecosystem Studies, World Agroforestry Center, East Asia, Kunming 650201, China c Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, IAFENT Division, Sassari, Italy d School of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, UK e CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Townsville, Qld 4814, Australia f Chair of Forest Inventory and Remote Sensing, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany g KULeuven, Division Forest, Nature and Landscape, Celestijnenlaan 200E, 3001 Leuven, Belgium article info Article history: Received 25 March 2013 Received in revised form 7 November 2013 Accepted 18 November 2013 Available online xxxx Keywords: Climate change Bioclimatic stratification Biodiversity conservation Himalaya abstract An analysis and multi-model approach, based on a statistically derived Global Environmental Stratification (GEnS) and using a downscaled ensemble (n = 63) of CIMP5 Earth System Models applied across four representative concentration pathways (RCP), has been used to project the impact of climate change on spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecosystems within the biodiverse rich Xishuangbanna Prefecture, Yunnan Province, by the year 2050. Four bioclimatic zones and 9 strata were identified, overlaid with protected areas, and associated with on-going landuse change, i.e. a rapid increase in rubber plantation from 8% to 22% of total area between 2002 and 2010. Significant changes in the areal extent and distribution of all zones and strata are projected, with an averaged mean annual temperature increase ranging from 1.6 °C to 2.4 °C. By 2050, there are significant geographical shifts in all identified strata, with an average upward shift of 309 m of elevation for all strata. On average, more than 75% of Xishuangbanna is predicted to shift to a different zone, with 96% shifting to a different stratum. The area conducive to rubber plantations, currently limited by climatic conditions, expands to nearly 75% of the total area. Climatic change potentially removes the bioclimatic barriers to further expansion of rubber plantations within the area and increases pressure on remaining biodiversity both within and outside of protected areas. The analysis provides the basis for understanding potential impacts of changing biocli- matic conditions on managed and unmanaged ecosystems and landuse change trends, within the context of ongoing rapid change and agricultural expansion in the area. Current efforts to conserve forests, biodi- versity and traditional landuse systems require an improved understanding of both the projected climatic changes and the responses of biodiversity and traditional agricultural systems to changing conditions. Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction 1.1. Overview Improved understanding of the impact of climate change on landuse change processes in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, China is required for effective conservation planning within the context of a rapidly changing environment. Habitat loss through landuse and landcover change is a major driving factor accelerating biodiversity loss across the globe, as it is within Xishuangbanna (Xu et al., 2012), an area recognized as China’s ‘‘Treasure House’’ of biological diversity, and one of the richest in number of flower- ing species in the world. At the same time, it is generally agreed that climate change will have major impacts on ecosystems throughout this mountainous region (Xu et al., 2009, 2012). Although more than 12% of Xishuangbanna’s land area is desig- nated as various types of protected areas (Guo et al., 2002), the im- pacts of climate change could undermine current and future conservation efforts if changing conditions, such as shifts in species ranges (Körner, 2007; La Sorte and Jetz, 2010, 2012) are not consid- ered in planning and implementation of conservation policies and initiatives. Likewise, understanding the impact climate might have on agricultural suitability and landcover change, particularly the expansion of agricultural land area, is required if sustainable 0006-3207/$ - see front matter Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2013.11.028 ⇑ Corresponding author at: Center for Mountain Ecosystem Studies, Kunming Institute of Botany, Heilongtan, Kunming 650201, China. Tel.: +86 871 5223014. E-mail addresses: r.zomer@cgiar.org (R.J. Zomer), Antonio.Trabucco@cmcc.it (A. Trabucco), marc.metzger@ed.ac.uk (M. Wang). Biological Conservation 170 (2014) 264–273 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Biological Conservation journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/biocon