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Progress In Oceanography
January-February 2010, Volume 84, Issues 1-2, Pages 121-128
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2009.09.015
© 2009 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.
Archimer
http://archimer.ifremer.fr
The case for marine ecosystem models of intermediate complexity
Charles Hannah
a, *
, Alain Vezina
a
and Mike St. John
b
a
Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Dartmouth, NS, Canada
b
University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
* Corresponding author : Charles Hannah, Tel.: +1 902 426 5961, email address : charles.hannah@dfo-
mpo.gc.ca
Abstract:
Marine ecosystem models are reasonably proficient at simulating physically-driven features such as
spring blooms. However, the demands on these models are shifting to complex biological issues such
as functional diversity, and changes in ecosystems and their services such as exploited fish stocks
and carbon sequestration. Current ecosystem models generally use a food web structure reduced to
its bare essentials. A consequence of the simplified structure is that they are specialized to a particular
time, place and ecosystem state and thereby have limited ability to evolve into a substantially different
state as a result of internal dynamics or changes in external forcing. We use food web theory and the
ideas from complexity theory to argue that an improved representation of the structure of marine food
webs is essential for the next generation of marine ecosystem models. Here we propose that a useful
guiding principle for model design is provided by earth system models of intermediate complexity; a
willingness to sacrifice process detail in order to increase the number of interacting components in the
system and simulate the web of feedback loops.