A Departure Time Choice Model with Bounded Rationality
Wenyun TANG
1
, Lin CHENG
2
, Zhaoming CHU
3
1
Ph.D. Candidate, Prof. Lin Cheng Lab, School of Transportation, Southeast
University, No.2 Si Pailou, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210096; PH 025-83795649; email:
towenseu@seu.edu.cn
2
Professor, Prof. Lin Cheng Lab, School of Transportation, Southeast University,
No.2 Si Pailou, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210096; PH 025-83795649; email:
gist@seu.edu.cn
3
Ph.D. Candidate, Prof. Lin Cheng Lab, School of Transportation, Southeast
University, No.2 Si Pailou, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210096; PH 025-83795649; email:
chuzhaoming@126.com
ABSTRACT
Knowledge of departure times of commuter trips plays an important role,
providing a basis for future policy making and for forecasting the peak hour without a
great deal of investigation. This paper has proposed a departure time choice model
based on prospect theory, considering that travelers are not entirely rational, being
affected by the environment, the ability to obtain traffic information, and so on. In the
case study, travelers are divided into several groups by their risk attitude (risk averse,
risk neutral, risk appetite). We then find the difference of in the departure time
amongst different the kinds of travelers, providing evidence for road network
construction and traffic management.
1. INTRODUCTION
The departure time decisions of commuters are of fundamental importance to the
study of peak-period traffic congestion and to the analysis of traffic control.
Additionally, this information aids in the selection of broader demand-side congestion
relief measures, such as pricing and ride sharing incentives (Rosenbloom, 1978). The
choice of departure times has a direct impact on the subsequent travel route choice
behavior, which plays a very important role in the travel choice behavior of road users.
In traditional departure time choice models, some considered the decision-makers to
be completely rational while others did not classify the travelers. In this paper,
travelers are classified by their risk attitudes on the basis that the decision-makers are
rationally bound. Based on this, we propose a model to study the decision-making
behavior.
2. PROSPECT THEORY
Prospect theory was jointly proposed by Kahneman and Tversky in 1979, who
pointed out that the traditional theory of decision-making was on the basis of
completely rational decision-makers who can predict the future in the longitudinal
direction and know the behavior of all other decision-makers’ as well as the
environmental factors in the horizontal direction. However, decision-making behavior
is affected by other factors, such as the complex environment; the information
received by human beings is handled by other systems, and the human beings’
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