106 Int. J. Critical Infrastructures, Vol. 6, No. 2, 2010
Agent-based modelling of energy
infrastructure transitions
E.J.L. Chappin* and G.P.J. Dijkema
Faculty of Technology
Policy and Management
Delft University of Technology
P.O. Box 5015
2600 GA, Delft, The Netherlands
Fax: +31(0)152783422
E-mail: e.j.l.chappin@tudelft.nl
E-mail: g.p.j.dijkema@tudelft.nl
*Corresponding author
Abstract: Shaping energy transitions not only requires technical system
innovation and redesign but also new policies, regulations, Research and
Development (R&D) and investment strategies – a transition assemblage.
Transition management thus equates to designing and implementing such an
assemblage. Agent-Based Models (ABMs) may be used for ex-ante assessment
of transition assemblage alternatives. To help determine whether the design of a
particular model is fit for its purpose, we have developed a typology. Three
models were assessed:
1 a model on the impact of CO
2
policy on the power production sector
2 a model on the transition of the global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
infrastructure
3 a model on the imminent transition caused by the arrival of Light-Emitting
Diode (LED) lighting systems.
All three models can be used to compare transition assemblage alternatives and
could be adapted to assess regulatory adaptability.
Keywords: agent-based model; ABM; energy infrastructures; energy
modelling; transitions; transition management; power generation; carbon
policies; LNG market; consumer lighting.
Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Chappin, E.J.L. and
Dijkema, G.P.J. (2010) ‘Agent-based modelling of energy infrastructure
transitions’, Int. J. Critical Infrastructures, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp.106–130.
Biographical notes: Emile J.L. Chappin is a PhD Researcher at the Faculty of
Technology, Policy and Management of the Delft University of Technology,
the Netherlands. His research is on modelling and transition management of
energy infrastructures.
Gerard P.J. Dijkema is an Associate Professor of Energy and Industry at the
Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, the Netherlands.
His specialisation is system innovation for sustainability.
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