ORIGINAL PAPER Estimation of future precipitation change in the Yangtze River basin by using statistical downscaling method Jin Huang • Jinchi Zhang • Zengxin Zhang • ChongYu Xu • Baoliang Wang • Jian Yao Published online: 24 October 2010 Ó Springer-Verlag 2010 Abstract In this study, the applicability of the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) in downscaling precipitation in the Yangtze River basin, China was investigated. The investigation includes the calibration of the SDSM model by using large-scale atmospheric variables encompassing NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the validation of the model using independent period of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the general circulation model (GCM) outputs of scenarios A2 and B2 of the HadCM3 model, and the pre- diction of the future regional precipitation scenarios. Selected as climate variables for downscaling were mea- sured daily precipitation data (1961–2000) from 136 weather stations in the Yangtze River basin. The results showed that: (1) there existed good relationship between the observed and simulated precipitation during the calibration period of 1961–1990 as well as the validation period of 1991–2000. And the results of simulated monthly and sea- sonal precipitation were better than that of daily. The average R 2 values between the simulated and observed monthly and seasonal precipitation for the validation period were 0.78 and 0.91 respectively for the whole basin, which showed that the SDSM had a good applicability on simu- lating precipitation in the Yangtze River basin. (2) Under both scenarios A2 and B2, during the prediction period of 2010–2099, the change of annual mean precipitation in the Yangtze River basin would present a trend of deficit pre- cipitation in 2020s; insignificant changes in the 2050s; and a surplus of precipitation in the 2080s as compared to the mean values of the base period. The annual mean precipi- tation would increase by about 15.29% under scenario A2 and increase by about 5.33% under scenario B2 in the 2080s. The winter and autumn might be the more distinct seasons with more predicted changes of precipitation than in other seasons. And (3) there would be distinctive spatial distribution differences for the change of annual mean precipitation in the river basin, but the most of Yangtze River basin would be dominated by the increasing trend. Keywords Statistical downscaling model Á SDSM Á Precipitation Á The Yangtze River basin Á China 1 Introduction Human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land cover and use, are nowadays considered to increase the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, which in turn change the climate of the Earth (Keller 2009). It is reported in the fourth report of the Intergov- ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) that the increasing concentration of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases are main cause of global warming. It has been pointed out in the report that the global surface temperature has increased by 0.74°C in the latest century (1906–2005), and the increasing rate is about 0.13°C/10 years in the past J. Huang Á J. Zhang (&) Á Z. Zhang Á J. Yao Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Forestry Ecological Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, Long Pan Road 159, Nanjing 210037, China e-mail: zjcforest@yahoo.com.cn C. Xu School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China B. Wang Nanjing Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Science, Nanjing 210008, China C. Xu Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway 123 Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2011) 25:781–792 DOI 10.1007/s00477-010-0441-9