Out of control: How we failed to adapt and suffered the consequences Scott E. Kalafatis a, ⁎, Maureen Campbell b , Frazier Fathers c , Katrina L. Laurent d , Kathryn B. Friedman e , Gail Krantzberg f , Don Scavia g , Irena F. Creed d a School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Michigan, 440 Church St., Ann Arbor, MI, 48109-1041, USA b Department of Political Science, University of Windsor, 1149 Chrysler Hall North, 401 Sunset Avenue, Windsor, Ontario, N9B 3P4, Canada c University of Windsor, Windsor, Ontario, N9B 3P4, Canada d Department of Biology, Western University, Biological and Geological Sciences Building, London, ON, N6H 3B7, Canada e School of Law, State University of New York at Buffalo, 77 Goodell Street, Suite 302, Buffalo, NY 14203, USA f Centre for Engineering and Public Policy, McMaster University, Office ETB 510, Extension 22153, Hamilton, ON, L8S 4L8, Canada g School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109, USA abstract article info Article history: Received 24 October 2013 Accepted 28 September 2014 Available online xxxx Communicated by Paul Sibley Index words: Climate change Green economy Fracking Divergence Lake levels International events, economic changes, and the impacts of climate change will test the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence River basin over the next five decades. The region's ability to effectively meet these challenges will require foresight, investment, and cooperation. As a contribution to this special issue, this paper presents one plausible 50-year scenario of the emergence of these challenges and the region's response to them. In it, early signs of eco- nomic, environmental, and governmental vulnerability are not adequately addressed. Investments aren't made to provide needed funding for monitoring and evaluation. The region's intellectual and environmental capital isn't leveraged, limiting the region's ability to address its economic and environmental challenges and compete with the rest of the world. The pursuit of local self-interest and short-term survival outweighs cooperation across jurisdictions and long-term planning. The vision of the future presented here is one in which the region's econ- omy is dependent on stagnant extractive industries, its ecosystems are compromised, and its global standing is greatly reduced. In response to all of these developments, by 2063 hopelessness and violent tension is spreading throughout the region's population. © 2014 International Association for Great Lakes Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Introduction In order to avoid danger, one must first anticipate it. “Out of Control” describes five decades of challenges facing the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence River basin from 2013 to 2063. The scenario presented in this paper draws upon the insights of research in this special issue on the following major drivers of future change in the basin and surrounding Great Lakes region: invasive species (Pagnucco et al., in this issue), biological and chemical contaminants (Cornwell et al., in this issue), climate change (Bartolai et al., in this issue), demographics and societal values (Méthot et al., in this issue), the economy (Campbell et al., in this issue), energy (Kelly et al., in this issue), governance and geopolitics (Jetoo et al., in this issue), and water quantity (Maghrebi et al., in this issue), as well as technology (See Appendix A). This future history represents one of the four plausible narratives laid out in Laurent et al. (in this issue) based upon the intersection of two highly uncertain and highly influential forces present in the region: the human capacity for change and an environmental and economic balance. As the most negative scenario explored in this issue, it describes the possible conse- quences of both a fragile environment and economy and a society inca- pable of changing to meet these challenges. The rest of the first section provides a short overview of the fifty-year period. In section 2, we pro- vide a scenario narrative based on five decade-long descriptions before concluding in section 3. Drifting towards the cliff In 2012, the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence River region celebrated a high point in its global profile as a regional economic, environmental, and political leader as Canada and the US successfully amended their Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA; IJC, 2012). In 2063, this peak is viewed as a period of missed opportunity. Narratives of in- ternational comity and returning prosperity obscured concerns over shortfalls of moral commitment, specific objectives, science-driven monitoring, economic-savvy assessment, and considerations about impending climate change. For several decades, more and more alarming conditions were met only with apathy or mismanagement. As the magnitude of global climate change impacts emerged in earnest Journal of Great Lakes Research xxx (2014) xxx–xxx ⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 734 764 7983. E-mail addresses: scottkal@umich.edu (S.E. Kalafatis), maureencampbell@live.com (M. Campbell), kiglic2@uwo.ca (K.L. Laurent), kbf@buffalo.edu (K.B. Friedman), krantz@mcmaster.ca (G. Krantzberg), icreed@uwo.ca (I.F. Creed). JGLR-00828; No. of pages: 10; 4C: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2014.12.002 0380-1330/© 2014 International Association for Great Lakes Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Great Lakes Research journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jglr Please cite this article as: Kalafatis, S.E., et al., Out of control: How we failed to adapt and suffered the consequences, J Great Lakes Res (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2014.12.002