Case–Crossover Study of Partner and Situational Factors for
Unprotected Sex
*George R. Seage III, ‡Sarah Holte, §Michael Gross,
Beryl Koblin, ¶Michael Marmor,
#Kenneth H. Mayer, and †William R. Lenderking
*Harvard School of Public Health and †Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; ‡Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research
Center, Seattle, Washington; §Division of AIDS, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Bethesda, Maryland;
New
York Blood Center, and ¶New York University School of Medicine, New York, New York; and #Memorial Hospital and Brown
University, Providence, Rhode Island
Objectives: To identify situational and partner characteristics associated with un-
protected sex among women at risk for HIV infection.
Methods: The most recent unprotected and protected sexual encounters were com-
pared using a case–crossover design among 1,647 women enrolled in a prospective
cohort study conducted in six U.S. cities. Information collected via audio computer–
assisted self-interview included detailed situational and partner characteristics for par-
ticipants’ most recent sexual encounters, with and without condom use. Paired odds
ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for situational or partner
characteristics that may differ between unprotected and protected sexual encounters,
using conditional logistic regression.
Results: In the adjusted analysis, partner age of older than 40 years (OR 2.42),
partner type (OR 2.45 for a “steady” partner), partner use of alcohol (OR 1.67)
and drugs within 2 hours (OR 1.42) of the sexual encounter, time since the
encounters (OR 0.41, 0.33, and 0.19), and exchange of sex for money or drugs
(OR 0.68) remained significantly associated with women’s most recent unprotected
sexual encounter.
Conclusions: Considerations related to partner and relationship characteristics
should provide information for the development of interventions for women.
Key Words: HIV risk behaviors—Case–crossover design—HIV epidemiologic
methods.
AIDS is the third leading cause of death in 25- to
44-year-old U.S. women, with the greatest increases in
recent years in those with heterosexually transmitted
cases (1–3). In a recent prospective cohort study of 865
women at risk for HIV infection, the incidence of HIV
infection among female injection drug users (1.24 cases
per 100 person-years) and noninjecting females (1.13
cases per 100 person-years) was severalfold higher than
that among male injection drug users (0.38 case per 100
person-years) (4). For noninjecting females, it has been
estimated that the risk of HIV transmission is 1 per 1,000
acts of unprotected vaginal intercourse (5).
There have been numerous published studies identify-
ing factors associated with unprotected vaginal inter-
course. In most reports, investigators attempted to asso-
ciate unprotected vaginal intercourse with general
sociodemographic or psychologic characteristics, such as
age, race/ethnicity, education, depression, substance use,
or empowerment (6–25). These “global” studies corre-
lated potential predictors of unsafe sex, such as overall
substance use, with outcomes, such as unprotected sex,
Address correspondence and reprint requests to Dr. George R. Seage
III, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health,
677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA; e-mail: gseage@
hsph.harvard.edu
Manuscript received May 14, 2001; accepted August 12, 2002.
JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes
31:432–439 © 2002 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc., Philadelphia
432