RELIGION AND PARTISANSHIP IN CANADA 51 Religion and Partisanship in Canada JAMES L. GUTH CLEVELAND R. FRASER 1 Using a survey of three thousand Canadian adults conducted by the Angus Reid Group in the autumn of 1996, we examine the continuing role of religion in shaping partisan preferences. We find that traditional religious alignments still have some impact, but are being reshaped by both religious and political developments. We find that Evangelical Protestants are drawn toward the new Reform Party, Mainline Protestants still tend toward the Progressive Conservatives, and Catholics—both English- and French-speaking—remain the bulwark of the Liberal Party. The New Democratic Party, however, finds its greatest resonance among secular Canadians, and the Bloc Quebecois is strongest among nominal, rather than practicing, French-speaking Catholics. In multivariate analysis, these religious variables stand up well against other influences in explaining partisan preferences. One of the most ancient influences on electoral choice in Canadian federal elections has been “the religious factor.” As one observer has noted, “In Canadian survey analysis, the sharpest group differences in Liberal and Conservative Party preference is between Catholics and Protestants” (Johnston 1985, 99). Indeed, this division has typically dwarfed the impact of other variables such as social class, ethnicity, or language. Although the strength of religious cleavages may have diminished somewhat during the late 1960s and through the 1970s, they continue to characterize Canadian party politics. While analysts remain puzzled by the persistence of these classic alignments long after the issues generating them have been settled, few argue that religion has disappeared entirely as an influence on electoral choice. This is an opportune time for a new look at the effects of religion on Canadian partisan alignments. In the past decade, major changes have transpired in the party system, while religion in Canada has also experienced continued transformation. The changes in the federal party system have been most dramatic, of course. Indeed, one veteran observer of Canadian electoral politics has argued that “if 1993 ended one [electoral] order, the next one has yet to congeal” (Johnston 1996, 47). Over the past decade, the virtual duopoly of the Progressive Conservatives (PC) and Liberals has been transformed into a real multiparty system with the 1987 advent of the Reform Party, which a decade later had risen to become the official opposition to the Liberal government, and of the Bloc Quebecois (BQ), now also a major force in Parliament. Combined with the persistence of the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the precipitous decline of the Progressive Conservatives, the dramatic shifts in party politics raise the possibility of major alterations in the partisan alignment of religious groups. The continuing transformation of Canadian religion also calls for a reassessment of the connection between religion and partisanship. The past two decades have witnessed the acceleration of secularizing trends among both Protestants and Catholics. Although traditional Christian beliefs still persist among most Canadians, religious observance has declined among both Mainline Protestants and Catholics, bolstering the ranks of nominal adherents in each tradition. In addition, the number claiming “no religion” has risen, adding to the political weight of truly secular voters. Only in the relatively small Evangelical community has declining commitment not been so apparent, but even here there is little evidence of actual numerical growth (Rawlyk 1996, 14; Nemeth 1993; Stackhouse 1994; Lipset 1990, 74-89). 1 James L. Guth is William R. Kenan, Jr., Professor of Political Science, Department of Political Science, Furman University, Greenville SC 29613. E-mail: jim.guth@furman.edu. Cleveland R. Fraser is Professor and Chair, Department of Political Science, Furman University, Greenville SC 29613. E-mail: cleve.fraser@furman.edu. An earlier version of this article was presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, 3-6 September 1998. Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion