Microsimulation for local impact analysis: An application to plant shutdown Terance J. Rephann*, Kalle Mäkilä**, and Einar Holm** *Allegany College of Maryland 12401 Willowbrook Road, SE Cumberland, MD 21502 USA trephann@allegany.edu **Spatial Modelling Centre Box 389 S 981 28 Kiruna, Sweden kma@smc.kiruna.se Einar.Holm@geography.umu.se Paper to be presented at the 50 th Annual North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International in Philadelphia, PA, on November 20-22, 2003 JEL Classification: R15 (Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Models), C15 (Statistical Simulation Methods; Monte Carlo Methods) Keywords: Plant closure, impact analysis, spatial modeling, microsimulation Abstract: Microsimulation was introduced nearly fifty years ago but has experienced a revival in the social sciences recently. Its use in regional science, however, has been limited although it offers some advantages over common regional analytic methods. This paper describes a microsimulation model that can be used to analyze the impact of a regional economic event. The model incorporates spatial, social, and economic factors and allows outcomes to be aggregated at different geographical scales, for different cohorts, and for variables not ordinarily considered in impact analysis. The model is used to simulate the effects of a plant shutdown on workers. Acknowledgements: The able work of members of the Spatial Modelling Centre SVERIGE development team made this paper possible. These members included Coomaren Vencatasawmy, Neil Swan, Eva Alfredsson, Magnus Åström, Johan Esko, Marianne Öhman, Johnny Siikavaara, Kerstin Holme, Mona Mattsson-Kauppi, Mirjana Boskovic, and Gunnel Mörtvik. This research was supported by funding from the European Community, European Regional Development Fund. The views expressed in the article are those of the authors alone http://www.equotient.net Published in Journal of Regional Science 45,1: 183-222.