The Effects of Warm Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures on the ASCE 7- 10 Design Wind Speeds Peter J. Vickery 1 and Francis M. Lavelle 2 1 Applied Research Associates, Inc., 8537 Six Forks Rd., Suite 600, Raleigh, NC 27615; PH (919) 582-3343; FAX (919) 582-3401; email: pvickery@ara.com. 2 Applied Research Associates, Inc., 8537 Six Forks Rd., Suite 600, Raleigh, NC 27615; PH (919) 582-3350; FAX (919) 582-3401; email: flavelle@ara.com ABSTRACT Atlantic basin hurricane activity has been shown to be correlated with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). In positive phases of the AMO (warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, SST) hurricane activity is higher than evident in the long term average (both warm and cool cycles). In this paper we examine the correlation between the Atlantic SST anomaly and rates and intensities of US landfalling hurricanes. The ASCE 7-10 (ASCE, 2010) wind speeds were computed using tropical cyclone statistics based on the long term average. We are currently in a warm SST cycle, and landfall rates of intense hurricanes are higher in the warm SST cycle. We show the impact of these higher landfall rates on the design wind speeds given in ASCE 7-10. The effect of the SST anomaly on the design wind speeds is treated by applying weights to the hurricane probabilities assigned to each tropical cyclone used in the development of the current ASCE 7-10 design wind speed maps. The weights are based on information on landfall rates according to the storm intensity and landfall location. The net result of the process is a new set of wind speed hazard curves that are valid in a warm Atlantic SST cycle. The climate conditioned hazard curves are compared to those used to develop the ASCE 7-10 wind speed maps at ten points along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. INTRODUCTION The impact of the variation in the sea surface temperature on Atlantic basin activity hurricane has been studied by a number of investigators including, for example, Goldenberg et al. (2001), Emanuel (2005), Webster et al. (2005), Mann and Emanuel (2006), Vecchi and Knutson (2008), Wang and Lee (2008), and Dailey et al. (2009). Goldenberg et al. (2001) were the first to correlate cycles in Atlantic