The side effects of quantitative easing: Evidence
from the UK bond market
James M. Steeley
*
Aston Business School, Birmingham B4 7ET, UK
article info
Article history:
Available online 26 November 2014
JEL:
G12
G14
E43
E44
E52
Keywords:
Quantitative easing
Gilts
UK bonds
Price efficiency
Bond investors
abstract
We examine the returns to UK government bonds before, during
and between the phases of quantitative easing to identify the side
effects for the market itself. We show that the onset of QE led to a
sustained reduction in the costs of trading and removed some
return regularities. However, controlling for a wide range of mar-
ket activity, including issuance and QE announcements, we find
evidence that investors could have earned excess returns after
costs by trading in response to the purchase auction calendar.
Drawing on economic theory, we explore the implications of these
findings for both the efficiency of the market and the costs of
government debt management in both the short and long run.
© 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
The UK government bond market (the gilt-edged bond market, or gilts) has been the main financial
market within which the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has undertaken its
programme of asset purchases, funded by central bank money creation, known as Quantitative Easing
(QE). By the end of the most recent phase of QE in March 2013, the Bank of England had completed £330
billion of purchases of gilts, amounting to just over one-third of the total nominal stock outstanding.
Existing research on the effects of the QE programme in the UK has focussed either directly on the
impact on various macroeconomic aggregates, or indirectly on the economic effects by examining the
* Tel.: þ44 121 204 3248.
E-mail address: j.m.steeley@aston.ac.uk.
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Journal of International Money
and Finance
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jimf
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.11.007
0261-5606/© 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Journal of International Money and Finance 51 (2015) 303e336