WHEC 16 / 13-16 June 2006 – Lyon France Building Scenarios for Greener Gas J.L. Zachariah-Wolff a , B. Enserink and P.M. Herder, a Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 2600 GA, Delft, the Netherlands Phone: + 31 15 278 3713 Fax: +31 15 278 3422 E-mail: J.L.Zachariah@tbm.tudelft.nl ABSTRACT: In the Netherlands, the Greening of Gas project has been started to investigate the feasibility, from ecological, economic and technological perspectives, of adding hydrogen to the Dutch natural gas network. The preliminary findings of the project suggest that steam methane reforming of natural gas provides the most logical choice for the initial stages of a transition to a hydrogen economy. This presents an opportunity for research into synergistic options for hydrogen and natural gas in a combined energy supply. The approach adopted for exploring the feasibility of this idea of synergy is through the creation of plausible, internally consistent scenarios. In this paper we describe the way that the scenarios were designed and how they provide a framework for designing effective policies. These robust scenarios are a critical first-step for the development of an adaptive policy and a flexible investment strategy aimed at effecting the transition to a sustainable hydrogen economy. KEYWORDS: hydrogen, natural gas, scenarios 1. Introduction In the Netherlands, we are fortunate to have the highest level of natural gas penetration in the world: virtually every home, office and industry is connected to the natural gas grid [1]. As part of the nationally-funded Greening of Gas project, we explore the feasibility (from ecological, economic and technological perspectives) of adding hydrogen to the existing nation-wide natural gas network, with a view to reducing diffuse CO2 emissions and ultimately initiating a shift towards a hydrogen economy. The initial findings of the project suggest that large-scale steam methane reforming of natural gas (the least expensive and most common method of producing hydrogen on an industrial scale) provides the most logical choice for the initial stages of a transition to a hydrogen economy [2]. So this presents an opportunity for research into synergistic options for hydrogen and natural gas in a combined energy supply as a first step to a hydrogen economy. The transition from the traditional natural gas (NG) energy system to one which can support the proposed H2/NG combined energy supply, and ultimately pure H2, depends on several technical and economic factors and many different actors. In light of the uncertainty concerning the energy landscape in the medium to long terms, a set of scenarios would provide a firmer foundation for exploring the possibilities of achieving a hydrogen future via greener gas. Scenarios are images of the future and are increasingly popular as analytical tools for assessing the impacts of policies in the case of unanticipated events [3, 4]. Scenarios neither predict the future, nor prevent the unexpected from happening. They can, however, do teach us to anticipate the unexpected and provide us with a framework for incorporating the type of flexibility necessary for success during a transition to an unpredictable future. In this paper we briefly present our methodology for the creation of robust, internally-consistent scenarios for moving towards hydrogen via greener gas. Firstly, we detail the building-blocks of our scenario-building methodology. We describe the rationale for creating a sound scenario-logic and explain the benefits of using the group decision support systems to facilitate this process before combining these elements in our structured approach to scenario-building. We then present the results of the process and the mega-trends that emerged. We put forward the scenarios that were constructed by the participants. Finally, we discuss the implications of the results and offer some concluding remarks along with an outline for future work based on these scenarios. 1/8