Land use/land cover change detection and prediction in the north-western coastal desert of Egypt using Markov-CA Marwa Waseem A. Halmy a, * , Paul E. Gessler b , Jeffrey A. Hicke c , Boshra B. Salem a a Department of Environmental Sciences, PO Box 21511, Faculty of Science, Alexandria University, Egypt b Department of Forest, Rangeland and Fire Sciences, PO Box 441133, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844-1133, USA c Department of Geography, PO Box 443021, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844-3021, USA article info Article history: Received 1 May 2014 Received in revised form 26 June 2015 Accepted 26 June 2015 Available online xxx Keywords: Markov-cellular automata Land use/cover change Prediction Deserts abstract Detecting land-use change has become of concern to environmentalists, conservationists and land use planners due to its impact on natural ecosystems. We studied land use/land cover (LULC) changes in part of the northwestern desert of Egypt and used the Markov-CA integrated approach to predict future changes. We mapped the LULC distribution of the desert landscape for 1988, 1999, and 2011. Landsat Thematic Mapper 5 data and ancillary data were classified using the random forests approach. The technique produced LULC maps with an overall accuracy of more than 90%. Analysis of LULC classes from the three dates revealed that the study area was subjected to three different stages of modification, each dominated by different land uses. The use of a spatially explicit land use change modeling approach, such as Markov-CA approach, provides ways for projecting different future scenarios. Markov-CA was used to predict land use change in 2011 and project changes in 2023 by extrapolating current trends. The technique was successful in predicting LULC distribution in 2011 and the results were comparable to the actual LULC for 2011. The projected LULC for 2023 revealed more urbanization of the landscape with potential expansion in the croplands westward and northward, an increase in quarries, and growth in residential centers. The outcomes can help management activities directed toward protection of wildlife in the area. The study can also be used as a guide to other studies aiming at projecting changes in arid areas experiencing similar land use changes. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction 1.1. Significance of LULC change Land use/land cover change is considered one of the most important environmental issues of global concern (Guan et al., 2011; Veldkamp & Lambin, 2001). Changes in land use/land cover and the associated habitat loss and fragmentation are major causes of biodiversity loss (Sala et al., 2000). Such changes are usually caused by human activities (e.g., deforestation, urbaniza- tion, agriculture intensification, overgrazing, and subsequent land degradation), however natural factors can also contribute to these changes (Lambin, 1997). Changes such as shifting to intensive agriculture and overgrazing are major causes of land degradation in arid lands. These human-induced changes can cause declines in natural resources and can affect food supply in these areas resulting in serious socio-political consequences (Turner II et al., 2007). The significance of the issue has led to the emergence of a number of international multidisciplinary research projects to monitor and study LULC changes such as the Land Use and Land- Cover Change project and the Global Land Project (GLP). Both are joint projects of the International Geosphere Biosphere Project (IGBP), launched in 1987 to examine how Earth's ecological pro- cesses interact at broad scale and how they are affected by human systems. The International Human Dimension Project (IHDP) began in 1990 to study global change from the social perspective (GLP, 2005). The availability of remotely sensed data and growing advances in their temporal, spatial, and spectral resolutions continue to provide tools for detecting changes on the Earth's surface at different scales (Rogan & Chen, 2004; Wu et al., 2006). Under- standing the dynamics of these changes provides information for * Corresponding author. E-mail address: marw.w.halmy@alexu.edu.eg (M.W.A. Halmy). Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Applied Geography journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apgeog http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.06.015 0143-6228/© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Applied Geography 63 (2015) 101e112