13th ICCRTS-2008 “C2 for Complex Endeavors” 1 SECURE: Stochastic Enhanced Control of Unstable Regional Environments Georgiy M. Levchuk 1a , Bruce Skarin a , Daniel Serfaty a , and Krishna R. Pattipati b a Aptima Inc., 12 Gill Street, Suite 1400,Woburn, MA 01801 b Electrical and Computer Engineering Department, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269 Abstract In this paper, we present a conceptual integration of pattern classification, dual control under uncertainty, and social dynamics simulation technologies to address the problem of instability management. We conceptually designed a model called Stochastic Enhanced Control of Unstable Regional Environments (SECURE) to provide effective real-time early-warning and decision analysis for monitoring, assessing, forecasting, and preventing the regional conflicts and instability. Our current work is focused on validating the model against real-world and synthetic datasets, and will be reported in future publications. The SECURE calculates the indicator of a power balance in the area of interest based on the interaction network that defines the state of and relationships among the groups, organizations, institutions, and individual members of the society. Using this indicator, SECURE tracks the dynamics of the society of interest over time and develops robust dynamic action strategies to maintain stability and prevent crises. SECURE solution is based on the concept of dual control, a judicious integration of actions to influence the state of the environment of interest as well as to gain more knowledge about the true state of the environment. SECURE is enhanced with the social dynamics simulation models to generate possible dynamics of the society. Such dynamics form the models that are used by the predictive and decision algorithms to recognize and control current and future state of the environment. 1. Motivation: Regional Crises Early Warning 1.1. The Challenge Today’s world is changing rapidly, generating more asymmetric and unconventional adversaries for the United States. International crises pose more of a challenge to U.S. national security as unstable or failed states fuel regional conflicts, harbor terrorists hostile to the U.S. or are unable to protect themselves against the spread of terrorism. Failed states can also become centers for the trade of illicit drugs and arms, and can form breeding grounds for dangerous diseases. Regional conflicts not only cause humanitarian disasters requiring ever-increasing resources from the international community, but also create political, economic, and social instability in the neighboring countries, a growing number of which possess or are interested in developing weapons of mass destruction. 1 georgiy@aptima.com; phone 781-935-3966x267; fax 781-935-4385; www.aptima.com