International Journal of Enterprise Information Systems, 11(4), 63-78, October-December 2015 63
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Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Information Security Management System (ISMS), ISO/
IEC 27001, Monte-Carlo Simulation, Risk Assessment
ABSTRACT
In recent decades, information has become a critical asset to various organizations, hence identifying and
preventing the loss of information are becoming competitive advantages for irms. Many international standards
have been developed to help organizations to maintain their competitiveness by applying risk assessment and
information security management system and keep risk level as low as possible. This study aims to propose a
new quantitative risk analysis and assessment methodology which is based on AHP and Monte Carlo simula-
tion. In this method, AHP is used to create favorable weights for Conidentiality, Integrity and Availability
(CIA) as security characteristic of any information asset. To deal with the uncertain nature of vulnerabilities
and threats, Monte Carlo simulation is utilized to handle the stochastic nature of risk assessment by taking
into account multiple judges’opinions. The proposed methodology is suitable for organizations that require
risk analysis to implement ISO/IEC 27001 standard.
A Weighted Monte Carlo
Simulation Approach to Risk
Assessment of Information
Security Management System
Seyed Mojtaba Hosseini Bamakan, School of Economics and Management, Key Laboratory of
Big Data Mining and Knowledge Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,
Beijing, China
Mohammad Dehghanimohammadabadi, Department of Mechanical and Industrial
Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
INTRODUCTION
In today’s competitive business environment, information has a key role in any organization.
Hence protecting, securing and managing information appropriately are crucial (Kritzinger &
Smith, 2008). In last few decades, many firms completely were tied to information systems to
handle their daily process with the lowest labor cost, materials and capital, and in return, gain
more appropriate and efficient services. However, information security threats could jeopardize
the information and must be given serious attention by organizations (Ou Yang, Shieh, & Tzeng,
2013). Information violation would negatively affect the organization by: losing time, manpower,
DOI: 10.4018/IJEIS.2015100103