Climatic Change (2011) 106:225–254
DOI 10.1007/s10584-010-9899-1
Climate change vulnerability of sustainable forest
management in the Eastern Alps
Rupert Seidl · Werner Rammer · Manfred J. Lexer
Received: 23 February 2009 / Accepted: 15 June 2010 / Published online: 17 August 2010
© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010
Abstract Considering climatic uncertainties in management planning is a prerequi-
site for sustainable forest management (SFM). The aim of the study was to evaluate
climate change vulnerability of the current SFM strategy for commercial forests
managed by the Austrian Federal Forests. To that end vulnerability indicators were
defined in a stakeholder process (selected indicators were productivity, timber and
carbon stocks, biodiversity, disturbances, a tree species’ position in fundamental
niche space, silvicultural flexibility and cost intensity) and their performance under
climate change scenarios assessed with an ecosystem model. Multi criteria analysis
techniques were employed in a partial aggregation of indicators to locate forest
stands on a vulnerability surface. Results revealed high vulnerability particularly in
the second half of the twenty-first century, where 39.6% of the 164.550 ha study
area were assessed highly vulnerable to climate change, indicating a strong decline
in the functions and services represented by the indicator system. Water-limited
sites on calcareous bedrock were most negatively affected whereas assessment
units at higher altitudes responded predominately positive to climate warming. The
presented approach, transparently integrating multiple management objectives and
allowing a quantitative comparison of vulnerabilities between sites and management
strategies, contributes to the development of operational and efficient climate change
adaptation measures in forest management.
R. Seidl (B ) · W. Rammer · M. J. Lexer
Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest- and Soil Sciences,
University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Austria
e-mail: rupert.seidl@boku.ac.at
Present Address:
R. Seidl
Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, College of Forestry,
Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA