Contributed Paper Understanding Interaction Effects of Climate Change and Fire Management on Bird Distributions through Combined Process and Habitat Models JOSEPH D. WHITE, ∗ § KEVIN J. GUTZWILLER, ∗ WYLIE C. BARROW,† LORI JOHNSON-RANDALL,† LISA ZYGO,‡ AND PAMELA SWINT ∗ ∗ Department of Biology, Baylor University, One Bear Place 97388, Waco, TX 76798, U.S.A. †U.S. Geological Survey, National Wetlands Research Center, 700 Cajundome Blvd., Lafayette, LA 70506, U.S.A. ‡Center for Spatial Research, Baylor University, One Bear Place 97351, Waco, TX 76798, U.S.A. Abstract: Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process-based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail ( Callipepla squamata), Loggerhead Shrike ( Lanius ludovicianus), and Rock Wren ( Salpinctes obsoletus), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo ( Fouquieria splendens) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf-area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species’ use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes. Keywords: climate change, conservation planning, desert birds, ecosystem modeling, fire suppression Comprensi´ on de los Efectos de la Interacci´ on del Cambio Clim´ atico y el Manejo de Fuego sobre la Distribuci´ on de Aves Mediante Modelos Combinados de Procesos y H´ abitat Resumen: Los esfuerzos para la conservaci´ on de aves deben considerar los cambios en la composici´ on y estructura de la vegetaci´ on asociados con el cambio clim´ atico. Modelamos los cambios en la vegetaci´ on y la probabilidad de ocurrencia de aves para proyectar cambios en la distribuci´ on de aves en el invierno asociados con el cambio clim´ atico y el manejo de fuego en norte del Desierto Chihuahuense ( suroeste de E. U. A.). Simulamos cambios en la vegetaci´ on en un modelo basado en procesos ( Simulador de Paisaje y Fuego) que asoci´ o el cambio clim´ atico esperado con el doble del di´ oxido de carbono atmosf´erico actual en los pr´ oximos 50 a˜ nos. Estimamos la probabilidad relativa de la ocurrencia de aves con base en los modelos estad´ ısticos derivados de observaciones de aves en el campo y en datos sobre el tipo de vegetaci´ on, la topograf´ ıa y carreteras. Seleccionamos 3 especies focales, Callipepla squamata, Lanius ludovicianus y Salpinctes obsoletus, §email joseph_d_white@baylor.edu Paper submitted February 15, 2010; revised manuscript accepted November 18, 2010. 536 Conservation Biology, Volume 25, No. 3, 536–546 C 2011 Society for Conservation Biology DOI: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01684.x