ELSEVIER Safety Science 20 (1995) 91-99 Natural and manmade disasters: accepting and managing risks Berrin Tame1 Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Florida International University. Miami, FL 33199, USA zyxwvuts Abstract The prevention and reduction of risks require understanding, development, and application of engi- neering solutions, Risk is an important factor in many public policy decisions, insurance policies, and regulatory actions. The risk tolerance of people for various circumstances depends on many factors. The risk of death by natural disasters is relatively small in comparison the various life style related activities and home accidents. However, natural disasters result into significant property damage. Some of the recent natural disasters resulted in significant damage from a cost perspective due to extensive environmental and structural damage. Losses due to disasters are usually measured in dollars for comparison purposes. In most cases there are also significant ecological damages which are difficult to estimate from a cost perspective. Property damages due to disasters can be minimized by careful planning and preparation. However,reducing risks comes at increased cost. What is possible and what is feasible are two different measures that need to be evaluated. The cost of recovery could be significantly reduced if specific disaster planning measures are taken to include land development restrictions in high risk natural disaster areas. 1. Introduction Prevention and reduction of risks require understanding, development and application of engineering solutions. Risk is an important factor in many public policy decisions, insurance policies and regulatory actions. Risk can be expressed as the probability of occurrence of an event and its consequences, or as the magnitude of the consequences expected over some period of time (Solomon et al., 1983). The consequences may include the number of injuries, amount of money lost, number of prompt deaths and latent deaths, and property damage. In a perfect world, one would desire to achieve zero risk, which is impossible. All activities involve some risk. Activities that are perceived riskless only appear that way because either the observer is too familiar with them or the risk is so low that it is below the threshold of recognition ( AIChE, 1985). 09257535/9.5/$09.50 0 1995 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved .SSDlO925-7535(94)00070-O