Journal of Coastal Research 24 3 602–614 West Palm Beach, Florida May 2008 Coastal Damages on Saaremaa Island, Estonia, Caused by the Extreme Storm and Flooding on January 9, 2005 Hannes To ˜nisson † , Kaarel Orviku ‡ , Jaak Jaagus § ,U ¨ lo Suursaar †† , Are Kont †* , and Reimo Rivis † † Institute of Ecology Tallinn University Uus-Sadama 5 Tallinn 10120, Estonia are@tlu.ee ‡ Merin Ltd. Ra ¨vala 8 Tallinn 10143, Estonia § Institute of Geography University of Tartu Vanemuise 46 Tartu 51014, Estonia †† Estonian Marine Institute University of Tartu Ma ¨ ealuse 10a Tallinn 12618, Estonia ABSTRACT TO ˜ NISSON, H.; ORVIKU, K.; JAAGUS, J.; SUURSAAR, U ¨ .; KONT, A., and RIVIS, R., 2008. Coastal damages on Saaremaa Island, Estonia, caused by the extreme storm and flooding on January 9, 2005. Journal of Coastal Research, 24(3), 602–614. West Palm Beach (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. A cyclone known as Gudrun in the Nordic countries developed above the North Atlantic and traveled over the British Isles, Scandinavia, and Finland on January 7–9, 2005. As a result of high initial levels of the Baltic Sea, the fast- traveling cyclone with a favorable trajectory and strong SW–W winds created a record high storm surge (275 cm) in Pa ¨ rnu, as well as in many other locations along the west Estonian coast. The January storm induced clearly visible changes in the development of shores and the dynamics of beach sediments over almost all of Estonia. The precondition for the profound changes observed from this storm—which has been observed in connection with some previous major storms—was a combination of the absence of protecting ice cover in the sea, relatively high sea level for a long period before the storm, and a very intensive storm surge taking place over the background of the already elevated sea level. Strong storm waves combined with the high sea level caused substantial changes in the coastal geomorphology of depositional shores on Saaremaa Island, Estonia. The most exceptional changes occurred in the areas that were well exposed to the storm winds and wave activity—for instance, in Kelba, where the high rate of erosion (3000 m 3 ) resulted in the elongation of a spit by 75 m. Our conclusion is that the January 2005 storm caused significantly larger changes to the depositional shores in west Estonia than the cumulative effects of ordinary storms over the preceding 10–15-year period. ADDITIONAL INDEX WORDS: Storm surge, climate change, Gudrun, Erwin, erosion, shoreline changes, Baltic Sea. INTRODUCTION The centennial of Russia’s Bloody Sunday rebellion on Jan- uary 9, 1905—a political event in St Petersburg that over- turned the preexisting political order—was marked by an enormous storm that tore through the beaches and forests of Estonia, leaving a permanent mark on its coastline. A cyclone known in the Nordic countries as Gudrun (and in the British Isles and Central Europe as Erwin) developed above the North Atlantic and traveled over the British Isles, Scandi- navia, and Finland during the period from January 7, 2005, through January 9, 2005. Gudrun reached hurricane strength on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale on the basis of maxi- mum wind speeds (34 m/s, gusts up to 46 m/s) measured by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). It was one of the strongest storms in 40 years, both in the Scandinavian coun- tries and in Estonia, causing massive forest damage and dis- ruption of power and telephone lines. Over the course of the storm, at least 17 people lost their lives. As a result of high DOI:10.2112/06-0631.1 received 6 January 2006; accepted in revision 17 October 2006. *Corresponding author. This paper was supported by Estonian Science Foundation grants 5763 and 5929, by target-financed projects 0282121s02 and 0282119s02, funded by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Re- search as well as by the ERDF Interreg IIIB project ASTRA. initial levels of the Baltic Sea, the fast-traveling cyclone with a favorable trajectory and strong SW–W winds produced a new record high storm surge (275 cm) in Pa ¨rnu, as well as in many other locations along the west Estonian coast (SUUR- SAAR et al., 2006). The last recorded storm surge with a near- ly comparable storm surge (253 cm) in Estonia took place 38 years ago. A significant increase in cyclonic activity over the North Atlantic has been observed during the second half of the 20th century (GULEV,JUNG, and RUPRECHT, 2002; SCHMIDT, KAAS, and LI, 1998; SEPP,POST, and JAAGUS, 2005). As a result, storminess has increased in the NE Atlantic and NW Europe (ALEXANDERSSON et al., 1998; PACIOREK et al., 2002; PRYOR et al., 2003), and trends toward higher storm surge levels have recently been reported for various locations of northern Europe (JOHANSSON,KAHMA, and BOMAN, 2003, 2004; JYLHA ¨ ,TUOMENVIRTA, and RUOSTEENOJA, 2004; LAN- GENBERG et al., 1999; LOWE,GREGORY, and FLATHER, 2001; MEIER,BROMAN, and KJELLSTRO ¨ M, 2004), including Estonia (JAAGUS,POST, and TOMINGAS, 2004; ORVIKU et al., 2003; SUURSAAR et al., 2006). All this has led some scientists to foresee vitalization of coastal geomorphic processes and changes in existing equilibrium of coastal development be- cause of the anticipated rise in sea levels and increasing storminess (e.g., KONT,JAAGUS, and AUNAP, 2003; SUUR-