Journal of Abnormal Psychology 2001, Vol. 110, No. 3, 378-391 Copyright 2001 by the American Psychological Association, Inc. 0023-843X/01/S5.00 DO!: 10.1037//0021-843X.110.3.378 Transitioning Into and Out of Large-Effect Drinking in Young Adulthood Kristina M. Jackson, Kenneth J. Sher, Heather J. Gotham, and Phillip K. Wood University of Missouri—Columbia As individuals age beyond the college years into young adulthood, many exhibit a tendency to moderate or "mature out of alcohol involvement. The current study classified effect-drinking statuses in young adults and examined transitions among statuses using latent transition analysis, a latent variable state-sequential model for longitudinal data. At 3 occasions over 7 years (Years 1, 4, and 7), 443 men (47%) and women (mean age of both at baseline = 18.5 years; 51% with family history of alcoholism) responded to 3 past-30-day items assessing drinking and subjective effects of drinking: whether the respondent drank alcohol, felt high, and felt drunk. Latent statuses included abstainers (14% at Year 1), limited-effect drinkers (8%), moderate-effect drinkers (23%), and large-effect drinkers (54%). Respon- dents with family history of alcoholism were less likely to transition out of large-effect drinking than those without family history. Men exhibited more severe initial effect-drinking statuses and lower transition probabilities into less severe effect-drinking statuses than women. During the transition from high school to the college years, many young adults greatly increase their alcohol involvement (e.g., Berkowitz & Perkins, 1987). Nationally representative data show that 41% of 21- to 22-year-olds versus 28% of 18-year-olds drink five or more drinks in a row within a 2-week period (Johnston, O'Malley, & Bachman, 1998). Nineteen percent of college students were "frequent binge drinkers" who consumed at least four (for women) or five (for men) drinks in a row, three or more times in the past 2 weeks (Wechsler, Davenport, Dowdall, Moeykens, & Castillo, 1994). Even among "high-risk" young adults (i.e., heavy or problem drinkers in high school), consuming 7-8 drinks on a single occasion during the past month increased from 42% in high school to 62% in college (Baer, Kivlahan, & Marlatt, 1995). As young adults age beyond the college years, however, many exhibit a tendency to moderate or "mature out of heavy alcohol involvement (Donovan, lessor, & Jessor, 1983). Men's and wom- en's alcohol consumption (particularly heavy drinking) increases up to age 20 or 21 and generally decreases thereafter (Johnston et al., 1998; Muthen & Muthen, 2000). Drinking rates tend to decline in the decade following adolescence, presumably due to the indi- vidual adopting a more conventional lifestyle (Fillmore, 1988; Kristina M. Jackson, Kenneth J. Sher, and Phillip K. Wood, Department of Psychological Sciences, University of Missouri—Columbia, and Mis- souri Alcoholism Research Center at the University of Missouri—Colum- bia; Heather J. Gotham, Missouri Institute of Mental Health, School of Medicine, University of Missouri—Columbia. Preparation of this article was supported by National Institute on Alco- hol Abuse and Alcoholism Grants R37 AA07231 and P50 AA11998. We thank Linda Collins, Brian Flaherty, Jenny Larkins, Susan O'Neill, Gilbert Parra, and Wendy Slutske for their assistance and helpful com- ments in preparation of this article. Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Kristina M. Jackson, Department of Psychological Sciences, University of Mis- souri, 200 South 7th Street, Columbia, Missouri 65211-0001. Electronic mail may be sent toJacksonKM@missouri.edu. Jessor, Donovan, & Costa, 1991). Yet, some young adults continue to drink at moderate to heavy levels or even show increased use, and many continue to have drinking problems (Fillmore, 1988; Tubman, Vicary, von Eye, & Lerner, 1990; Windle, 1988). Given that heavy drinking is associated with increased risk for alcohol dependence (Grant, 1993), it is not surprising that a number of young adults go on to develop alcohol use disorders (Zucker, Fitzgerald, & Moses, 1995). Thus, a central question of research into the etiology of alcoholism concerns factors that distinguish young adults who moderate their alcohol consumption as they age from those who persist in heavy drinking patterns. However, relatively little research has addressed the nature of transitions out of heavy alcohol use during this rapidly changing period of life (recently termed "emerging adulthood"; Arnett, 2000). Recent research has begun to chart the longitudinal course of alcohol involvement during adolescence and young adulthood. Wills, McNamara, Vaccaro, and Hirky (1996) identified five clus- ters of adolescent drinkers over 3 years: stable nonusers, minimal experimenters, slow escalation, fast escalation, and late starters. Given the age of their participants (grades 7-9), they failed to observe transitions out of heavy alcohol use. Two adolescent studies, however, documented transition out of alcohol involve- ment. Barnes et al. (1998) described six courses of alcohol use over six waves (flat-low, flat-high, moderate increase, sharp increase, up-down, and decrease). Tubman et al. (1990) identified four alcohol use patterns over five time points: stable low user; increased user until age 16-19, then decreased user; low user until young adulthood; and steady high rate of alcohol use until decrease at age 16-19. This phenomenon of transitioning out of drinking is especially apparent in research targeting young adults. Using clus- ter analysis, Bennett, McCrady, Johnson, and Pandina (1999) found four young adult drinking groups: stable low drinkers, stable moderate drinkers, developmentally persistent problem drinkers, and youth-limited problem drinkers. Schulenberg and colleagues (Schulenberg, O'Malley, Bachman, Wadsworth, & Johnston, 1996; Schulenberg, Wadsworth, O'Malley, Bachman, & Johnston, 1996) hypothesized and empirically supported conceptually mean- 378 This document is copyrighted by the American Psychological Association or one of its allied publishers. This article is intended solely for the personal use of the individual user and is not to be disseminated broadly.