Risk Analysis, Vol. 29, No. 10, 2009 DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01272.x A Monte Carlo Risk Assessment Model for Acrylamide Formation in French Fries Enda Cummins, 1∗ Francis Butler, 1 Ronan Gormley, 2 and Nigel Brunton 2 The objective of this study is to estimate the likely human exposure to the group 2a car- cinogen, acrylamide, from French fries by Irish consumers by developing a quantitative risk assessment model using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Various stages in the French- fry-making process were modeled from initial potato harvest, storage, and processing pro- cedures. The model was developed in Microsoft Excel with the @Risk add-on package. The model was run for 10,000 iterations using Latin hypercube sampling. The simulated mean acrylamide level in French fries was calculated to be 317 μg/kg. It was found that females are exposed to smaller levels of acrylamide than males (mean exposure of 0.20 μg/kg bw/day and 0.27 μg/kg bw/day, respectively). Although the carcinogenic potency of acrylamide is not well known, the simulated probability of exceeding the average chronic human dietary in- take of 1 μg/kg bw/day (as suggested by WHO) was 0.054 and 0.029 for males and females, respectively. A sensitivity analysis highlighted the importance of the selection of appropriate cultivars with known low reducing sugar levels for French fry production. Strict control of cooking conditions (correlation coefficient of 0.42 and 0.35 for frying time and temperature, respectively) and blanching procedures (correlation coefficient −0.25) were also found to be important in ensuring minimal acrylamide formation. KEY WORDS: Acrylamide; French fries; risk assessment; simulation 1. INTRODUCTION Worldwide concern about acrylamide occurred in 2002 when researchers in Sweden first reported that high levels (>1,000 μg/kg) of the group 2a car- cinogen existed in many foods that were heated to high temperatures. (1) Acrylamide is a neurotoxin and is classified as a probable carcinogen to hu- mans by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). (2) Subsequent research found 1 UCD School of Agriculture, Food Science and Veterinary Medicine, Agriculture and Food Science Centre, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland. 2 Ashtown Food Research Centre, Ashtown, Dublin 15, Ireland. ∗ Address correspondence to Enda Cummins, UCD School of Agriculture, Food Science and Veterinary Medicine, Agriculture and Food Science Centre, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland; tel: +353- 1-7167476; fax: +353-1-7167415; Enda.Cummins@ucd.ie. that acrylamide may be formed by heating of many starchy foodstuffs. (1,3) Highest levels of acrylamide were found in carbohydrate-rich foods cooked at high temperatures, such as French fries, potato crisps, fried/baked potato products, crisp bread, biscuits, crackers, and breakfast cereals. (1) Tareke et al. (4) showed that acrylamide was formed by heat- ing above 120 ◦ C these starch-based foods. Potatoes (Solanum tuberosum) have tradition- ally been a major food product in Ireland, providing a stable source of food and nutrition. The market for French fries is very buoyant in Ireland. (5) The young age profile of the Irish population is currently help- ing to underpin the growth in the French fry mar- ket. (6) The fast-food outlets dotted around Ireland provide French fries and snacks for a large portion of the human population and the market is currently valued at over €336 million. (5) A survey of Irish 1410 0272-4332/09/0100-1410$22.00/1 C  2009 Society for Risk Analysis