Occupancy estimation of jaguar Panthera onca to assess the value of east-central Mexico as a jaguar corridor L ISANNE S. P ETRACCA , O. E RIC R AMÍREZ -B RAVO and L ORNA H ERNÁNDEZ -S ANTÍN Abstract The use of wildlife corridors to maintain land- scape connectivity has become increasingly relevant to the conservation of wide-ranging species, including the jaguar Panthera onca. Jaguars are particularly threatened in Mexico, where corridor linkages are tenuous as a result of habitat fragmentation. Our study assessed a section of potential corridor south of the Sierra Madre Oriental in eastern Mexico. We conducted 245 interviews with local inhabitants in 140 36-km 2 sampling units over a 5-month period and compiled detection histories for jaguars and five prey species: collared peccary Pecari tajacu, red brocket deer Mazama americana, white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginia- nus, spotted paca Agouti paca, and nine-banded armadillo Dasypus novemcinctus. These detection histories were then analysed using site occupancy modelling. Each sampling unit was assigned a probability of habitat use based on (1) the two smaller prey species (paca and armadillo) and (2) at least two of the larger prey species (collared peccary and two deer species) using habitat in that unit. This prob- ability estimate was considered a proxy for the prey base of each sampling unit and therefore the unit’s suitability as a jaguar corridor. Although the prey base in some areas appears adequate to support a jaguar population, large-scale development projects and the paucity of jaguar sign are major obstacles to this region’s potential as a jaguar corridor. Our results suggest that the eastern coast of Mexico may not be a priority area for range-wide jaguar conservation. Keywords Connectivity, interviews, jaguar, Mexico, occu- pancy modelling, Panthera onca, wildlife corridor This paper contains supplementary material that can be found online at http://journals.cambridge.org Introduction T he concept of large-scale habitat connectivity via protected areas and associated wildlife corridors has become a driving force in conservation of the jaguar Panthera onca (Sanderson et al., 2002; Rabinowitz & Zeller, 2010). As human population growth continues, wildlife corridors are considered a means to prevent the loss of genetic diversity in resident wildlife populations as a result of habitat fragmentation (Beier & Noss, 1998). The jaguar has become a model species for the implementation of such strategies in Mesoamerica because of its large home range requirement, threatened status and significant role as a keystone species and apex predator (Swank & Teer, 1989; Sunquist & Sunquist, 2002). A recent analysis of mitochon- drial DNA from blood samples across the species’ range showed high gene flow and little evidence of geographic barriers to dispersal (Eizirik et al., 2001), suggesting that large-scale habitat connectivity may still exist. The purpose of corridors is to promote species persis- tence via dispersal and subsequent genetic exchange (Noss, 1987). As habitat fragmentation increases and gene flow is reduced or prevented, potential effects include a smaller effective population size and a reduction in adaptive fitness as a result of genetic drift and inbreeding (MacArthur & Wilson, 1967; Soule & Mills, 1998). The effects of reduced genetic exchange in felids have been well documented, par- ticularly in relation to the Florida panther Felis concolor coryi (Hedrick, 1995). Isolated populations also suffer the negative effects of demographic and environmental sto- chasticity (Brown & Kodric-Brown, 1977). Jaguars have been shown to inhabit human-impacted areas with varying degrees of disturbance (Foster et al., 2010) but little is known about the status of jaguar populations outside protected areas (Sanderson et al., 2002). Mexico, which is at the northernmost limit of permanent jaguar range, is no exception, with most jaguar research there occurring only recently (Monroy-Vilchis et al., 2008, 2009; Grigione et al., 2009). The range-wide analysis conducted by Rabinowitz & Zeller (2010) was one of the first modelling exercises of jaguar habitat across its range, using six landscape charac- teristics to identify least-cost corridors connecting 90 known jaguar populations. As this product was derived only from geospatial analysis and expert assignment of cost values, Zeller et al. (2011) used a field-based interview method to validate jaguar and prey presence in one of the LISANNE S. PETRACCA (Corresponding author) Panthera, 8 West 40th Street, 18th Floor, New York, NY 10018, USA. E-mail lpetracca@panthera.org O. ERIC RAMÍREZ-BRAVO* Durrell Institute for Conservation Ecology, University of Kent, Canterbury, UK LORNA HERNÁNDEZ-SANTÍN Departamento de Ciencias Químico-Biológicas, Universidad de las Américas, Puebla, México *Also at: Departamento de Ciencias Químico-Biológicas, Universidad de las Américas, and CREANATURA A.C., Puebla, México Received 12 June 2012. Revision requested 20 November 2012. Accepted 9 January 2013. First published online 6 November 2013. © 2013 Fauna & Flora International, Oryx, 48(1), 133–140 doi:10.1017/S0030605313000069