Journal of Cosmetics, Dermatological Sciences and Applications, 2013, 3, 1-6 doi:10.4236/jcdsa.2013.32A001 Published Online June 2013 (http://www.scirp.org/journal/jcdsa) 1 Projections of Incidence, Prevalence and Mortality from Melanoma in Spain Milagros Bernal 1* , Dyego L. B. Souza 2 , German Gomez 1 , Francisco J. Gomez 3 1 Universidad de Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain; 2 Universidad de Rio Grande, Port Alegre, Brazil; 3 Atención Primaria de Salud, Zaragoza, Spain. Email: * milagrosbernalperez56@gmail.com Received April 23 rd , 2013; revised May 22 nd , 2013; accepted May 29 th , 2013 Copyright © 2013 Milagros Bernal et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. ABSTRACT Objective: The incidence and mortality rates for cutaneous melanoma (CM) have increased markedly in the last few years. As such, the aim of this study was to forecast their progression in Spain up until 2022. Design: A prospective epidemiological study using the Miamod technique. The primary data source was the mortality statistics released by the National Statistics Institute. Study selection: The MIAMOD method was used. Data extraction: Cases of death due to general and melanoma-related mortality in Spain between 1998 and 2007. Results: In men, the incidence is expected to increase from 11.85 (adjusted: 8.52) to 14.79 (adjusted: 9.43) per 100,000 inhabitants over the period 1998-2022. Simi- larly, the mortality is expected to increase slightly from 5.84 (adjusted: 4.12) to 7.19 (adjusted: 4.49) per 100,000 in- habitants, and the prevalence from 73.72 (adjusted: 52.31) to 95.46 (adjusted: 60.02) per 100,000 inhabitants over the same period. In women, the incidence is expected to increase from 3.79 (adjusted: 3.04) to 6.46 (adjusted: 4.21) per 100,000 inhabitants between 1998 and 2022, although this increase is not statistically significant. The mortality is ex- pected to increase from 1.67 (adjusted: 1.24) to 2.98 (adjusted: 1.86) per 100,000 inhabitants, and the prevalence from 50.04 (adjusted: 44.54) to 84.81 per (adjusted: 56.18) 100,000 inhabitants over the same period. Conclusions: Primary and secondary prevention programs for this disease must be maintained. Keywords: Projections Cutaneous Melanoma; Incidence; Mortality 1. Introduction The incidence and mortality rates for cutaneous mela- noma (CM) have increased markedly worldwide in the past few years, especially in Caucasian populations, with the highest rates being found in Australian men (66.4; adjusted rate: 50.7) [1]. Although the rates in Europe are lower, Spain is one of the countries in which, despite the fact that significant increases have been observed, the effects of preventive measures are expected to reduce this trend in the near future. In this work, we have attempted to forecast the changes in melanoma incidence and mortality rates in Spain. This disease is responsible for some 0.7% of all deaths, with a mortality rate of 1.8 per 100,000 inhabitants [2]. The aim of this study was to estimate future trends in the inci- dence and mortality rates for this disease using new ad hoc statistical techniques and therefore to determine whe- ther the preventive measures implemented to date have proved effective. 2. Materials and Methods All cases included belong to the “malignant melanoma of skin” item (C43) and were obtained from the National Statistics Institute (INE) [3] publication “Deaths accord- ing to cause of death” (ICD-10), which includes the mor- tality for this disease. The histopathological verification percentage for the cases diagnosed is 100% as the clinical diagnosis of this severe disease is accompanied by a subsequent confirma- tory diagnosis, which is always anatomopathological. The MIAMOD program [4], which allows projections regarding non-transmissible diseases to be made, was used. This statistical software program allows future in- cidence, prevalence and mortality rates to be estimated. A back analysis, which involved recalculating the mor- tality data required to initiate the program in order to be able to correlate the observed and estimated data and * Corresponding author. Copyright © 2013 SciRes. JCDSA