Mapping and modelling trade-offs and synergies between grazing intensity and ecosystem services in rangelands using global-scale datasets and models Katalin Petz a,b, *, Rob Alkemade a,b , Michel Bakkenes a , Catharina J.E. Schulp c , Marijn van der Velde d,e , Rik Leemans b a PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands b Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands c VU University Amsterdam, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands d European Commission, DG JRC, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra 21027, Italy e International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Ecosystems Services and Management Program, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria 1. Introduction Rangelands are primarily natural grasslands, scrublands, woodlands, wetlands and (semi-)deserts (Alkemade et al., 2013) and cover almost half of the world’s land area (FAO, 2005). Vast rangeland areas are used and managed for pastoral livestock grazing with increasing intensity (MA, 2005; Steinfeld et al., 2006). Livestock production, which is the world’s principle land use, creates livelihoods for one billion poor people through their pastoralist livestock husbandry (Steinfeld et al., 2006). The largest extent of pastoral livestock grazing systems is found in savannas, grasslands, scrublands and (semi-)deserts (Asner et al., 2004). In these areas, people rely directly on ecosystem services (ESs), such as raw materials, food and water (Herrero et al., 2013a). Additionally, rangelands store a vast amount of carbon (Herrero et al., 2009; MA, 2005). ESs’ supply highly depends on the natural productivity and management of rangelands. Management deter- mines grazing intensity, the ratio between biomass grazed and biomass produced (Bouwman et al., 2005). Increasing livestock numbers and poor management cause widespread overgrazing and degradation of rangelands (Asner et al., 2004; Khan and Hanjra, 2009) and their ESs (MA, 2005; Steinfeld et al., 2006, 2010; White et al., 2000). This raises the concern of how to manage Global Environmental Change 29 (2014) 223–234 A R T I C L E I N F O Article history: Received 22 November 2013 Received in revised form 21 August 2014 Accepted 27 August 2014 Available online Keywords: Biodiversity Net primary production Carbon sequestration Erosion prevention Rangeland Livestock production A B S T R A C T Vast areas of rangelands across the world are grazed with increasing intensity, but interactions between livestock production, biodiversity and other ecosystem services are poorly studied. This study explicitly determines trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services and livestock grazing intensity on rangelands. Grazing intensity and its effects on forage utilization by livestock, carbon sequestration, erosion prevention and biodiversity are quantified and mapped, using global datasets and models. Results show that on average 4% of the biomass produced annually is consumed by livestock. On average, erosion prevention is 10% lower in areas with a high grazing intensity compared to areas with a low grazing intensity, whereas carbon emissions are more than four times higher under high grazing intensity compared to low grazing intensity. Rangelands with the highest grazing intensity are located in the Sahel, Pakistan, West India, Middle East, North Africa and parts of Brazil. These high grazing intensities result in carbon emissions, low biodiversity values, low capacity for erosion prevention and unsustainable forage utilization. Although the applied models simplify the processes of ecosystem service supply, our study provides a global overview of the consequences of grazing for biodiversity and ecosystem services. The expected increasing future demand for livestock products likely increase pressures on rangelands. Global-scale models can help to identify targets and target areas for international policies aiming at sustainable future use of these rangelands. ß 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. * Corresponding author at: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands. Tel.: +31 611738467. E-mail addresses: katalin.petz@pbl.nl, katalin.petz@gmail.com (K. Petz), rob.alkemade@pbl.nl (R. Alkemade), michel.bakkenes@pbl.nl (M. Bakkenes), nynke.schulp@vu.nl (Catharina J.E. Schulp), marijn.van-der-velde@jrc.ec.europa.eu (M. van der Velde), rik.leemans@wur.nl (R. Leemans). Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Global Environmental Change jo ur n al h o mep ag e: www .elsevier .co m /loc ate/g lo envc h a http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.08.007 0959-3780/ß 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.