NATURE|Vol 436| 4 August 2005 NEWS & VIEWS
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models a community as a finite collection of
individuals that have identical probabilities of
reproduction, death and dispersal. This yields
predictions for community properties in terms
of parameters that govern the stochastic
changes that the community undergoes — for
example the immigration or dispersal rate, the
speciation rate, and the size of the community.
Despite its simplicity, neutral theory’s predic-
tions have proven robust. Claims that it has
been falsified
4
have been followed by persua-
sive counter-arguments
5
.
Graves and Rahbek mount a new line of
attack on neutral theory by testing it at the
scale of an entire continent. Armed with an
impressive bird-distribution database amassed
from the collections of over 30 museums in 20
countries, as well as a global land-cover map
created from satellite data, they quantify the
correlation between the distribution of habitat
(or land-cover type ) and the distribution of
birds across South America at the resolution of
1ᑻ latitude by 1ᑻ longitude grid cells.
Put simply, Graves and Rahbek find that
birds in more widespread habitats tend to
be more wide-ranging. In particular, birds
present in the lowland regions of the continent
to the east of the Andes, where elevation
changes slowly and habitats are widespread,
are on average an order of magnitude more
wide-ranging than those on the western side
of the Andes, where topographic relief is at
a maximum and habitat changes quickly in
space (Fig. 1a). Furthermore, as one looks out-
wards from various locations on the continent,
the change in bird-community composition
is asymmetric and mimics the underlying
changes in habitat (Fig. 1b).
Graves and Rahbek conclude that there is a
strong causal influence of birds’ habitat require-
ments on their spatial distribution across South
America. They argue that this influence con-
tradicts neutral theory, which ignores species
differences in habitat requirements.
It is worth pointing out that the first of
Graves and Rahbek’s results, a correlation
between habitat extent and species’ spatial
extents, could arise from a source other than
habitat influence, a source that is instead con-
sistent with neutral theory. The Andes act as a
physical barrier to the dispersal of both birds
and the flora that cover the landscape. This
barrier, combined with the very different land
areas available to dispersing species to the west
and east of it, could alone explain the observed
correlation.
But there are no dispersal barriers to explain
the relationship between community compo-
sition and the distribution of riverside habitat
evident in Fig. 1b. And further study of the
ECOLOGY
Neutral theory tested by birds
Annette Ostling
A continental-scale analysis of habitat and bird distribution in South
America provides the latest challenge for neutral theory — a controversial
idea in ecology about what determines the make-up of communities.
How do different species end up living
together in communities? Do they coexist only
when each finds a different niche, or simply
when they happen to disperse to the same
habitable region? Debate over these questions
intensified not long ago with the introduction
of ‘neutral theory’
1
, a stochastic theory of
community properties whose predictions have
proven stubbornly robust, despite its disregard
of the niches that many ecologists hold dear.
Writing in Proceedings of the National Acad-
emy of Sciences, however, Graves and Rahbek
2
point out continental-scale patterns in the bird
communities of South America that neutral
theory may not be able to explain.
The dominant view in ecology is that species
live together in communities only when they
differ from one another. Species competing
for the same nutrient or food source cannot
coexist because one species will always be
more efficient than the others and will quickly
drive the rest to extinction
3
. Species that co-
exist must differ from one another in the
resource they use most efficiently or in the
environmental conditions to which they
are best adapted — that is, they must have
different niches. This view is often called
‘niche-assembly’.
The contrary viewpoint is that communities
are primarily shaped by historical accidents
that influence where species disperse (a beetle
floating to a distant island on flotsam, for
example, or the uplift of a mountain range that
blocks the flight of seeds between nearby
forests). This view has deeper roots in evolu-
tionary biology, where history is at centre stage,
than in ecology, which concentrates on short-
term interactions between species. The idea
behind it is that, rather than being quickly out-
competed, species that are less efficient at using
a resource evolve to be as efficient as their com-
petitors. The main criterion for coexistence
is dispersal to the same habitable region. This
view is sometimes called ‘dispersal-assembly’.
The neutral theory tested by Graves and
Rahbek
2
is the modern synthesis of dispersal-
assembly into a mathematical framework. It
Figure 1 | Summary of Graves and Rahbek’s results
2
. a, Bird species in the lowland regions of South
America, where habitat types are more widespread, are more wide-ranging than those on the western
edge of the continent, where the Andes create quick changes in elevation and habitat type. Colours
indicate median range-size in units of 1ᑻ latitude ǂ 1ᑻ longitude cells. b, The composition of bird
communities changes asymmetrically as one looks outwards from a location in the Amazon basin
(here 1–2ᑻ S, 69–70ᑻ W), mimicking the underlying distribution of riverside habitat. Colours indicate
the number of species in common with the focal location whose coordinates are listed. Neutral theory
may be consistent with a but Graves and Rahbek are correct that it cannot predict the ecological
importance of habitat evident in b. The theory may still be relevant at smaller scales, however, and
species differences in habitat requirements can evolve under dispersal-assembly on a heterogeneous
landscape. (Figures reproduced from ref. 2.)
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