Comput Econ (2009) 34:365–382
DOI 10.1007/s10614-009-9180-8
Tests of Random Walk: A Comparison of Bootstrap
Approaches
Eduardo J. A. Lima · Benjamin M. Tabak
Accepted: 5 May 2009 / Published online: 28 May 2009
© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. 2009
Abstract This paper compares different versions of the multiple variance ratio
test based on bootstrap techniques for the construction of empirical distributions.
It also analyzes the crucial issue of selecting optimal block sizes when block boot-
strap procedures are used. The comparison of the different approaches using Monte
Carlo simulations leads to the conclusion that methodologies using block bootstrap
methods present better performance for the construction of empirical distributions of
the variance ratio test. Moreover, the results are highly sensitive to methods employed
to test the null hypothesis of random walk.
Keywords Resample · Bootstrap · Variance ratio · Random walk
1 Introduction
Among the different methods developed to test the presence of serial correlations
in time series, the variance ratio test (VR) became quite popular after the studies of
Lo and Mackinlay (1988, 1989),
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Poterba and Summers (1988) and Cochrane (1988).
It has been frequently utilized to test the random walk hypothesis (RWH) not only in
financial time series, but also in macroeconomic data.
The Lo and Mackinlay (1988) VR methodology, for testing the RWH against
stationary alternatives exploits the fact that the variance of random walk increments
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It is worth mentioning that several studies, using variance ratios in different contexts, preceded the research
of Lo and Mackinlay (1988). However, none of these previous studies formalized the sample theory for the
test statistics. For this reason, most researchers attribute the variance ratio test to Lo and Mackinlay (1988).
E. J. A. Lima · B. M. Tabak (B )
Banco Central do Brasil, Brasilia, Brazil
e-mail: benjamin.tabak@bcb.gov.br
B. M. Tabak
Universidade Catolica de Brasilia, Brasilia, DF, Brazil
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