Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 2014, 6, 741-755 Published Online June 2014 in SciRes. http://www.scirp.org/journal/jwarp http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jwarp.2014.68071 How to cite this paper: Bop, M., Amadou, A., Seidou, O., Kébé, C.M.F., Ndione, J.A., Sambou, S. and Sanda, I.S. (2014) Mod- eling the Hydrological Dynamic of the Breeding Water Bodies in Barkedji’s Zone. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 6, 741-755. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jwarp.2014.68071 Modeling the Hydrological Dynamic of the Breeding Water Bodies in Barkedji’s Zone Mamadou Bop 1 , Angelina Amadou 2 , Ousmane Seidou 2 , Cheikh Mouhamed Fadel Kébé 3 , Jacques André Ndione 4 , Soussou Sambou 1 , Ibrah Seidou Sanda 5 1 Laboratoire d’Hydraulique et de Mécanique des Fluides, Département de Physique, Faculté des Sciences et Techniques, Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, Dakar, Sénégal 2 Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada 3 Centre International de Formation et de Recherche en Energie Solaire (CIFRES), Département de Génie Civil, Ecole Supérieure Polytechnique, Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Sénégal 4 Centre de Suivi Écologique (CSE), Dakar, Sénégal 5 Agrhymet Regional Center, Niamey, Niger Email: mamadou1.bop@ucad.edu.sn , pape4121@yahoo.fr Received 14 April 2014; revised 12 May 2014; accepted 8 June 2014 Copyright © 2014 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract Temporary water bodies’ dynamics play an important role in the epidemiological chain-borne diseases such as Rift Valley fever as they are the main breeding habitats for mosquitoes. During the rainy season, hundreds of these temporary water bodies appear and grow in the Ferlo region (Senegal). The purpose of this research is to generate historical and future time series water levels and areas at three temporary ponds located in the environment and health observatory of Bar- kedji. A simple lumped hydrological model was developed for that purpose. It describes each pond watershed as three interconnected reservoirs: canopy, surface storage and soil storage and uses a linear relation to describe infiltration, percolation and baseflow (out of the soil reservoir). Given the depth of the water table in the region, percolation out of the soil surface is considered lost. Evapotraspiration was calculated using the Penman equation and withdraws water from the ca- nopy and surface water reservoirs. Excess runoff from the soil storage is turned into runoff using a triangular unit hydrograph. The calibration was done using two years of hydrological and climatic data collected during the 2011 and 2012 rainy seasons. The calibration was successful and water level in the two ponds was simulated with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 11.2 to 15 cm. Be- cause of the short duration of the observation, no validation could be done. Given the excellent agreement of the simulated and observed water levels during the calibration phase, the modeling exercise was considered to be successful. The developed models were used to generate historical time series of pond areas and correlate these to mosquitoes’ infestation in the region. Future time series of pond areas were also generated using downscaled outputs of three regional climate models from the AMMA ENSEMBLES experiment. The generated pond levels and areas are being