TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 7,311- 325 (1975) 317 A Case Study of Assessment Applied to the “Cashless Society” Concept MURRAY TUROFF and IAN I. MITROFF ABSTRACT In previous papers [l-3] Mitroff and Turoff have introduced the relationships between technologi- cal forecasting and assessment and modem views of philosophical inquiry. This paper transcends discussions of theory and philosophy by providing the reader with a case history description of utilizing these concepts of philosophical inquiry in formulating the approach to a particular problem in technology assessment. Introduction It is very rare that those of us practicing in the field of forecasting and assessment ever have a free hand to conduct a technology assessment study as we would really like to. We usually operate in environments where time, effort, and money are primary constraints that place limits on what can be done. Other constraints which also impact are the organizational environment and the expertise available. Still, we may maintain a sense of professional pride in doing the best job possible within the given constraints. However, there is one constraint which we find difficult to bear. This is when the sponsor requesting the work has rigid preconceptions with respect to the fundamental nature of the problem. It is this latter constraint that usually gives the analyst his greatest pangs of conscience and misgivings. By the time he receives the problem it is often so rigidly formulated that the approach is implicit in the statement of the problem and the nature of the results that will be obtained are largely preordained. The choice facing the analyst at this point is whether to let the sponsor remain content or confront him with the possibility he may be seeking the right solution but to the wrong problem. It is sometimes very difficult to get across the concept that in the technology assessment area a major part of the consideration is the determination of what the problem really is, i.e., what is the question for which we wish to generate an answer? Recently we encountered this situation with an organization that wished an assessment of the “Cashless Society” concept. Confronting the problem directly, we expressed certain misgivings to the sponsor with respect to their formulation of the problem. It was a bit of a shock to us that they, in fact, agreed and in turn provided us with sizeablc funding for an initial phase of the study to investigate the nature of the problem. DR. MURRAY TUROFF is Assistant Chairman of Computer Science and Associate Director of the Center for Technology Assessment at the Newark College of Engineering. DR. IAN I. MITROFF is a Professor in the Interdisciplinary Doctoral Program in Information Sciences and also has an appointment in the Department of Philosophy at the University of Pittsburgh. @American Elsevier Publishing Company, Inc., 1974