1 DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE CHINA/TAIWAN CROSS-STRAITS REGION Planning for Disaster Mitigation George Pararas-Carayannis Keynote Presentation 2009 China Cross-Straits Symposium on the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards - 19-20 JUNE 2009, FUZHOU, CHINA ABSTRACT Fast-growing, coastal mega cities along China's east coast and the rim of the Cross-Straits region, in particular, are becoming increasingly more vulnerable to potential natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, typhoons, storm surges and floods. The provinces of Shanghai, Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang, as well as Taiwan, are threatened by common disasters. Advancing Cross- Straits ties in mitigating the impact of such disasters is extremely important for the sustainability of economic growth and the stability of the region. Building important infrastructure facilities on coastal areas on both sides of the Straits to support regional development and population growth require long term planning and adaptation of proper guidelines that will help mitigate catastrophic impacts in this important economic region. Mitigating the impact of future disasters requires an integrated multi- disciplinary planning approach which entails, first identifying disasters, then assessing their impacts, defining geographical limits of vulnerabilities, predicting recurrence frequencies, developing possible scenarios of future socio-economic impacts, resolving Land Use conflicts of vulnerable areas and, finally, preparing a comprehensive plan for preparedness. This presentation analyzes and assesses potential earthquake, tsunami, typhoon, and storm surge and flood disaster risks along the Cross- Straits region. Furthermore, it outlines sustainable, adaptive measures and strategies that must be implemented to help minimize potential future losses of lives and damage to property. Finally, it proposes guidelines for the preparation of a comprehensive disaster plan - a plan that will further advance ties for the Cross-Straits region, by encouraging and facilitating cooperation, not only for disaster mitigation but in various other fields, including education, science and technology. 1. INTRODUCTION The east coast of China is vulnerable to all types of disasters because of its long coastline, which extends for 1800 km from its border with Korea in the north to its border with Vietnam in the south and includes 6,500 coastal islands. Eight coastal provinces, two mega cities, several medium and small-sized cities and one autonomous region border this extensive coastline. More than 40 percent of the population, or about 500 million people live in coastal areas - a trend which continues at a high rate. Critical infrastructure facilities have been built with inadequate risk assessment or the need for more stringent engineering guidelines for both static and dynamic stabilities from the impact of future extreme disaster events. The present analysis provides a brief overview of historical data, discusses some of the major past earthquakes, tsunamis, typhoons and storm surges and outlines regional and local vulnerabilities in the Cross-Straits region. To illustrate future challenges in mitigating the potential impact that disasters can have, the presentation summarizes the geological and geophysical characteristics of the two prominent seismic zones that can produce destructive earthquakes and tsunamis - the Fuzian Province's seismic zone along the western side of the Cross-Straits and Taiwan's